Milburn, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

747
FXUS65 KSLC 070937
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
337 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A drying trend will result in showers and thunderstorms
becoming more isolated in nature into the middle of the upcoming
week. As moisture once again increases ahead of a slow moving
approaching system late in the work week, precipitation chances
will trend back upwards.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...Fairly quiet morning
ongoing, especially in comparison to the last couple. Area radars
currently only picking up on some light returns rolling eastward
through Utah valley and into the adjacent high terrain of the
Wasatch. PWAT values now in the 0.6" to 0.8" range suggest a
drying trend has started, and while those values are certainly
sufficient for precipitation, lack of any real synoptic forcing
mechanism should help preclude much more in the way of isolated
nocturnal activity from forming. CAM guidance seems to largely
agree with this line of thinking, maintaining fairly quiet
conditions pushing past sunrise.
On Sunday a weak midlevel ridge will be positioned over the
Rockies as a broad trough slowly churning towards the western US
coast begins to enhance southwesterly flow overhead locally. While
this flow will be drier than that of the last several days, PWAT
values will remain pretty close to that 0.6" to 0.8" range, which
in terms of anomalies sits around 100-140% of normal. With this
moisture, a subtle quick moving upper trough and associated jet
support in combination with diurnal destabilization look to yield
some scattered afternoon convective development, especially
along/east of northern Utah`s high terrain. With HREF mean SBCAPE
around 250-750 J/kg and bulk shear around 20-30 kts or so,
wouldn`t be entirely surprised to see one or two more robust
updrafts capable of some small hail and gusty outflow winds up to
around 50 mph or so. Ultimately though, coverage looks to be less
widespread than the last several days given the comparatively more
limited moisture and forcing. Like usual, activity should wane in
both coverage and intensity through the evening hours, giving way
to a more uneventful overnight period.
Monday will see much of the day largely under the influence of
deeper ridging. As such, despite some lingering moisture at
similar quantities to that of Sunday, lack of much in the way of
forcing mechanisms outside of daytime heating should result in
much more isolated afternoon convective development. Moving into
Monday night the deep Pacific trough churns closer, resulting in
mid level height falls and increasing synoptic support. As such,
NBM actually carries an increase in isolated precipitation chances
across northern Utah and southwestern Wyoming around midnight,
maintaining them on through Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...A longwave trough axis will be
positioned around the Pacific coast by Tuesday. The approaching
storm system will result in more windy conditions and more shower
and thunderstorm coverage as it tracks east. Southwest flow will
pick up as an enhanced pressure gradient slides in upstream of the
longwave trough axis Tuesday. This will bring south to southwest
winds, with gusts of 20-30 mph. The strongest winds will be in
southwest Wyoming and southwest Utah. Upper diffluence and
shortwave energy tracking through in southwest flow will bring
isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms. These will be
high-based, as conditions will be fairly dry ahead of the storm
system, and capable of gusty, erratic outflow winds.
The longwave trough will gradually track inland Wednesday, so
similar conditions will continue. There will be slightly stronger
flow and better forcing, with winds gusting in excess of 30 mph
for southwest Wyoming and southwest Utah. Many other locations
will have gusts range from 20-30 mph. The enhanced forcing will
come with more showers and thunderstorms than Tuesday, largely
again high-based with more wind than wetting rain.
The trough and what ensembles are in good agreement on of a
closed low will approach Utah Thursday, but southwest flow will
continue. There will be gradual cold air advection, with valley
highs decreasing from the mid and upper 80s Tuesday to upper 70s
and low 80s Thursday, roughly 5F cooler than normal. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are likely for southwest Wyoming and
much of Utah. By Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will be more
capable of locally moderate to heavy rainfall, particularly for
northern Utah.
The storm system will track into Utah Friday, but be lifting
northeast as it does. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are
likely again, with the wettest conditions for far northern Utah.
The coolest conditions of the week for southwest Wyoming and most
of Utah will be Friday, with valley highs from the low to mid 70s
in northern Utah and from the mid 70s to low 80s further south.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Scattered clouds in VFR range will last much of
the day. There is around a 20% chance for a rain shower or
thunderstorm from 20-00Z. Light southeast winds will prevail
through the morning. There is more uncertainty on wind direction
after 20Z, as a boundary from northwest to southeast flow will be
nearby. Showers or thunderstorms will be capable of altering wind
speeds and directions.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions with scattered
to broken clouds will prevail for southwest Wyoming and northern
Utah. Mostly clear conditions are likely elsewhere. There is
around a 20% chance for a rain shower or thunderstorm from KSLC to
KPVU, northeast into southwest Wyoming, from 20-00Z. West to
southwest winds are likely for southwest Wyoming and most of Utah,
with gusts around 25 knots for southwest Wyoming and southwest
Utah. Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of altering wind
speeds and directions.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A broad trough of low pressure deepening along the western
US coast will impart increasing southwesterly flow atop the area,
resulting in a drying trend beginning. Still, enough moisture
will linger to allow the development of some isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms into early next week, primarily along
the high terrain and during the daytime hours. As this broad
system begins to push inland into midweek, the increase of
southwesterly flow will lead to a corresponding increase to
daytime winds and gusts. With some gusts in the 25-35 mph range,
could see some locally elevated fire weather conditions in areas
where fuels are sufficiently dry and humidity values are low. That
said, despite the drying trend, modest overnight recoveries
should help some, and moisture will start to increase again
Wednesday onward. Precipitation chances also increase accordingly.
While some uncertainty is noted, general model consensus suggests
this broad system will then push into the area late in the work
week into the weekend.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Warthen
LONG TERM...Wilson
AVIATION...Wilson
FIRE WEATHER...Warthen
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NWS SLC Office Area Forecast Discussion