Minnetonka Beach, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

096
FXUS63 KMPX 131928
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
228 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Daily chances for scattered showers and storms begins tomorrow and
continues for much of next week.
- July like temperatures through midweek, cooling back down
  towards normal low 70s next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
The stubborn low clouds that were present over western Minnesota and
portions of western Wisconsin through the early afternoon have
finally dissipated as of 2pm, with some scattered upper level cloud
cover across the region lingering through tonight and into tomorrow
with no active weather until later in the day Sunday. Temperatures
today are more typical of July and mid-September with upper 70s to
low 80s and dew points in the mid 60s, making for a warm but
otherwise pleasant day with a slight breeze up to around 10mph out
of the southeast. Sunday looks to be the hottest day of our warm
stretch with highs in the upper 80s possibly approaching 90 for the
counties along the Minnesota River and the Twin Cities in southern
Minnesota. This is primarily driven by southerly flow and warm air
advection in the lower levels of the atmosphere east of a developing
trough over the eastern Rockies, with efficient mixing during
daylight hours promoting warmer temperatures to the surface. This
lobe of warm air advection will also result in forcing for vertical
ascent with chances for sporadic showers and thunderstorms, favoring
western Minnesota closer to the incoming trough. There are still
some significant differences in the placement and strength of the
nose of the low level jet, which mainly comes into play later on
Sunday into Monday, however there is deep enough general WAA to
continue to force showers into Monday.
The aforementioned trough is expected to occlude and move northwards
across the Dakotas by Monday afternoon with shower chances pushing
northwards towards northern Minnesota as the warm air advection
becomes neutral or even cold advection despite continued low level
southerly winds, due to cooling to our south in portions of Iowa,
Missouri, and Illinois driven by potential convection and cloud
cover. The forecast continues to rely on some mesoscale features
that have yet to be fully resolved within guidance due to being a
couple days out, thus there is still some variability within not
only the temperature forecast but also precipitation chances through
midweek. By Wednesday, the upper level trough will push a weak
surface low and cold front across the area as a secondary push of
CVA accompanies it as the upper level trough pushes northwards
towards central Canada, resulting in a better chance for more
widespread showers and weak storms. Behind the cold front,
temperatures should begin cooling down with upper 70s on Thursday
down to the low 70s by the weekend as the upper level pattern shifts
towards weaker flow as the occluded upper level low pushes through,
with a weak surface response possibly resulting in further sporadic
showers and weak storms. We will have to see how the early week
shapes up before we have better confidence on what comes after, as
we are within the period where we start to see stronger synoptic
scale systems resulting in more typical fall-like weather such as
stronger non storm related winds and more widespread rains. For now,
enjoy the warmth while we still have it, as we still have around 45-
50 minutes of daylight to lose by the end of the month.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Some stubborn clouds are hanging on at AXN, otherwise we are
mostly SCT150-250 across the area today and tonight with brief
periods of BKN150-250 possible. There could be some patchy BR
from 09-15z mainly for EAU which has a tendency to maintain IFR
vis for longer. Winds maintain a 100-140 direction at
10-12G20kts through 00z, diminishing to around 08-10kts
overnight. VFR is expected for the entire period for all sites,
with EAU being the main chance at MVFR/IFR due to brief BR.
KMSP...Mid level clouds will scatter out leaving only high
clouds overnight, with VFR throughout the period.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA pm. Wind S 5-10kts.
WED...MVFR/SHRA/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion