Moffit, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

362
FXUS63 KBIS 110733
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
233 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures continue through the weekend, with
  highs mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the west and
  central Thursday afternoon and evening.
- High chances for rain across the western half of the state
  this weekend, with medium chances for one half to one inch of
  accumulation.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
A heat burst is ongoing in southwest North Dakota, primarily
over Slope County. Temperatures are rising to around 80 degrees,
and wind gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range have been common.
There was a sensor near Amidon that reported a 74 mph gust, but
this is far stronger than any other surrounding observations. A
Special Weather Statement has been issued to address this.
UPDATE
Issued at 141 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
A complex of showers and thunderstorms entering southwest North
Dakota has been producing wind gusts as high as 50 mph. Short-term
guidance suggests a steady-state or decaying trend with this
convection as it continues to track northeastward, but downstream
DCAPE is around 1200 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. It is therefore
possible we could be seeing gusts to around 50 mph with these
showers and storms for the next few hours.
Much farther north, a stronger complex of thunderstorms is moving
east across southeast Saskatchewan. Recent updraft development on
the southern flank is getting closer to the border, and these storms
are riding the nose of a low level jet with strong warm air
advection and moisture transport that is forecast to pivot clockwise
through the night. This could eventually allow the MCS to build down
into north central North Dakota, and separate development is also
possible to the southeast of the MCS later in the night.
UPDATE
Issued at 950 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Quiet weather is found over western and central North Dakota at
the time of this late evening update. The band of weak
reflectivities previously found across the north has dissipated
without dropping much if any precipitation. Downstream of the
forecast area, showers and thunderstorms have developing along a
NNW to SSE orientated pseudo-stationary boundary. These showers
and storms are expected to slowly make their way into our
western counties through the early overnight period. With this
update, have blended in some of the latest model guidance into
the PoPs, but otherwise the forecast remains on track.
UPDATE
Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
A thin band of weak reflectivities organized along a inverted
surface trough linger over northwestern and portions of
northcentral North Dakota at the time of this early evening
update. Dry near surface conditions, with dewpoint depressions
around 30 degrees or greater are likely limiting precipitation
from this band, though we have heard limited reports of
sprinkles reaching the surface. Update wise, have blended in the
latest radar and model trends for PoPs tonight through Thursday
morning. Otherwise breezy southeast winds, with speeds up to 20
MPH and gusts around 30 to 35 MPH, continue at this time. While
winds will somewhat diminish overnight, a developing LLJ will
help keep speeds around 10 MPH overnight and thus limit fog
potential at this time. Other than the adjustments mentioned
above, the forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Currently a ridge axis is slowly moving east through the state.
At the time of this writing it is located in eastern North
Dakota, with southwest flow entering the state from the west.
The positive vorticity advection across the state is already
apparent when looking at satellite. There are mid and upper
level clouds in western North Dakota. At the surface the low
pressure system sits in southeast Montana, with a stationary
front stretched down through South Dakota. Over the next 24
hours the whole system will slide east, under the southwest flow
aloft. The pressure gradient will tighten, along with the warm
front across the south and east Thursday, leading to another day
of breezy winds.
Starting Thursday afternoon when the diurnal heating and warm
front enter the state, isolated severe storms are possible
through the evening. SPC has a marginal risk across most of
North Dakota, except the southeast. Most models agree that the
MUCAPE will be around 1700 J/kg and the shear around 30kts.
Model soundings also agree that the failure point will be a
slight capping layer where the thermal ridge is sitting, around
850mb. With surface temperatures forecast around 90 in the west
and lift from the warm front and low, it is possible for this
cap to break. The expected hazards if storms get going will be
ping pong sized hail and 60mph winds. The CAMs mostly have
isolated or clusters of storms so hail would seem to be more
likely than wind. The severe threat could continue into the
early part of the night if a strengthening low level jet kicks
in on the east side of the low.
Friday through the weekend that low pressure system and the
southwest flow will continue to produce showers and
thunderstorms daily. High temperatures will remain above
average. Sunday an upper low could form off the Rockies and move
into the Northern Plains. This will continue the chances for
showers and thunderstorms through early next week. The QPF for
the weekend could be over 1 inch, especially in the west. In
central and eastern North Dakota, QPF values look to be less
than 1 inch. Temperatures next week could be below or around
average for this time in September.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
VFR conditions are expected to begin the 06Z TAF period.
Convection currently in southeast Montana is pushing northeast
and dissipating ATTIM, but could make it into southwest ND after
midnight, with a locally gusty wind and brief downpours.
Currently forecast is too uncertain for this activity to make it
to KDIK for inclusion in the TAF. Will need to monitor though
as atmosphere aloft remains unstable. A low level jet will bring
wind shear to KXWA KDIK KMOT and KBIS in the 06-12 UTC
timeframe. Late tonight into Thursday morning convection is
possible across western and northern ND. Added a Prob30 for
thundershowers and KXWA and KMOT. AT KDIK, KBIS and KJMS,
convection may hold off until beyond the 06Z TAF period. There
is a possibility of some low stratus, most likely early Thursday
morning over central ND, but will not include in TAFS at this
time. Through the forecast period, expect a southeast to east
surface flow generally 10 to 20 knots, except 15 to 25 knots
late morning through the afternoon.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...TWH

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion