Morriston, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

375
FXUS62 KTBW 290710
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
310 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Tropical Storm Imelda, which is currently about 315 SE of Cape
Canaveral, will continue to move north through the day before making
a pretty sharp eastward turn on Tuesday. As it does so we will see
some dry air wrapping around the system keeping most of our area dry
through Wednesday with only some isolated showers. The only
exception with be the interior and the Nature Coast this afternoon
and evening which should see some scattered storms.
By Thursday upper level troughing will push over the area and
moisture will return. This will bring back a more familiar seabreeze
breeze thunderstorm coverage across the area. This trend of
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms will last through
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 304 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions for the period with north to northeasterly winds. A
few showers will be possible mainly in the evening but chances are
to low to add into TAF forecast.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Tropical Storm Imelda, which is currently about 315 SE of
Cape Canaveral, will continue to move north through the day before
making a pretty sharp eastward turn on Tuesday. This will keep winds
out of the north around 10 to 15 knots. As Imelda starting moving
farther away winds will shift northeast for the rest of the week and
increase to 15 to 20 knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Some drier air will be filtering into the area thanks to
Tropical Storm Imelda in the Bahamas. This will keep rain shower
chances low but but RH will still remain well above critical levels.
By Thursday moisture will increase and scattered showers and storms
will return.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  75  89  74 /  30  10  10  10
FMY  91  75  90  73 /  30  10  20  10
GIF  89  74  88  72 /  30  10  20  10
SRQ  90  75  88  72 /  20  10  20  10
BKV  90  71  88  68 /  30  10  20  10
SPG  88  76  86  75 /  20  10  10  10
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 8
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion