Mount Lemmon, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

926
FXUS65 KTWC 020955
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
255 AM MST Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail this week. Afternoon high
temperatures will warm to levels about 5 degrees above normal
today and Friday before cooling back down closer to near normal
levels this weekend. Breezy southwest winds are expected this
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Infrared satellite imagery this morning showed a
clear sky across SE AZ. PWATs were mostly in the 0.40" to 0.60"
range with high amounts up to 1" across northern Sonora MX.
For today: warmer with a small moisture push from the south as
PWATs increase into the 0.70" to 0.90" range. This will bring
an increase in mid-level cloud cover this afternoon, mostly east
of Tucson. A few low desert locations will see highs up to 101
degrees with the latest NBM probabilities showing an 18% chance
for 100 degrees at Tucson airport.
Friday: an upper level trof will push into the west coast with
bringing some light breezes to the area and cloud build-ups near
the AZ/NM border. Highs similar to today with latest NBM
probs showing a 21% chance of 100 degrees at Tucson airport.
This weekend: Above mentioned upper level trof will hang around
the western CONUS bringing gusty SW winds to the area on Saturday
and cooler high temperatures both days.
First half of next week: Warmer with highs generally running up to
5 degrees above normal.
After that there is still lots of uncertainty with respects to
the potential of tropical moisture advecting into the area and its
impacts on the area. Latest 6-10 day (Oct 7-11) and 8-10 day (Oct
9-15) precipitation outlooks are leaning above normal (50-70%)
across the area. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 03/12Z.
Mostly SKC thru the valid period with FEW-SCT 10k-12k ft AGL east
of Tucson this afternoon into this evening. SFC winds variable
and terrain driven less than 10 kts thru 02/17Z and then again aft
03/04Z. SFC winds SWLY/WLY 6-12 kts during other times of the
valid period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail across southeast
Arizona into this weekend. Winds generally south to southwest
through this week with speeds up to 15 mph and gusts up to 20-25
mph. Minimum RHs between 15-25 percent through the week as a drier
airmass becomes more established across Southeast Arizona. Above
normal temperatures into the weekend. Breezy southwest winds will
be present starting Friday through next Monday, with the strongest
wind gusts 30-35 mph expected Saturday.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion