Mud Lake, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

081
FXUS65 KPIH 082206
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
406 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry through this evening, then slight chance of showers
  beginning late tonight.
- Cooler and unsettled Tuesday through Friday with daily chances
  for isolated showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 405 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Updated forecast to include a slight chance of
thunderstorms across the southern highlands as radar shows a few
isolated returns. Not expecting much rainfall from these storms,
mainly dry variety. The storms should fizzle pretty quickly this
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Afternoon satellite imagery shows some slow CU field development
across the region along with some smoke moving into the Magic Valley
and Snake Plain from CA/NV wildfires. Doesn`t look the smoke will be
too much of a concern going forward aside from some haze and air
quality issues. As far as the forecast is concerned, expecting
clouds to increase as we progress through the evening and especially
into the overnight. Upper level flow becomes more S to SW with a
trough moving into the Pacific NW and this will allow some
additional moisture to stream into our area. Looks like we`ll stay
dry through midnight but hi-res CAMs show some rare nocturnal
shower/storm chances for the area after about 3AM or so with chances
increasing after daybreak on Tuesday and continuing into the mid-
afternoon. Any precip that does occur early tomorrow AM will likely
be mostly showers although can`t rule out a stray tstm chance. The
better thunderstorm chances will be from late morning into the mid-
afternoon hours tomorrow. Highest PoPs are focused across the
central mountains and eastern highlands tomorrow but still have 20-
40 percent coverage in the lower valleys. Clouds should keep temps a
touch cooler than this afternoon by a few degrees but the downward
trend will continue as the aforementioned trough moves closer to the
region for the middle and later parts of the week. More on that
below.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Unsettled pattern continues through the week, though models have
started to consolidate precipitation mainly over the higher
elevations with less coverage through the Snake Plain. This may be
due to pulling drier air between weak shortwaves rotating around the
upper low. Development and progression of convection throughout the
week will also have significant input to how much QPF falls over any
particular location. As such, long term estimates of the
precipitation should be taken with a dose of skepticism this far
out. Temperatures remain cool, with highs generally in the 70s for
many lower elevation locations. Once the upper trough shifts east
for the weekend, there is still a potential for wrap around showers
to occur especially Saturday. Temperatures remain cool with ensemble
means dropping daytime highs to the mid to upper 60s for portions of
the Snake Plain, and lows generally in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 405 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A couple isolated thunderstorms developed south of TAF
sites. Expect those to remain south of the sites before dissipating
this evening. Models show a shortwave trough arriving late tonight
into Tuesday morning. This will produce isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms for the TAF sites. Plan on including a mix
of VCSH and PROB30 storms at TAF sites during this time.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Dry day continues through this evening in between systems. Next
round of moisture shifts into the region after midnight with showers
developing across the southwest half of the district, shifting
northeast through the day Tuesday. Although chances are low
overnight and early Tuesday, there is potential for a thunderstorm
or two, and chances increase into the afternoon and evening. This is
the beginning of a broad period of unsettled conditions for the
week. Daytime humidities are expected to remain above critical
thresholds throughout the week. Precipitation amounts remain
variable, with the Snake Plain expected to remain the driest overall
compared to higher elevations. Thunderstorm activity could provide
periods of locally heavy rainfall. The deep Pacific trough shifts
east by the weekend, but moisture could linger for continued
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms both Saturday
and Sunday.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...DMH

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion