Musselshell, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

174
FXUS65 KBYZ 151945
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
145 PM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Persistent chances for showers and thunderstorms through
  Tuesday. 10-40% chance of receiving greater than 0.5 inches of
  additional rain.
- Light snow accumulations in the Beartooth Mountains above 10kft
  tonight through Wednesday morning. May impact travel over the
  highest elevations along the Beartooth Highway.
- Becoming drier with seasonal temperatures for the end of the
  work week. Above normal temperatures for the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A 500 mb Pacific trough will drop down to our west over the next
few days. This will put the region in a favorable deformation zone
today bringing precipitation chances of 40-60% across the region.
CAPE values 58 mph the
main threat with these storms. Models are indicating that
convection could continue through the overnight hours.
Upper level flow out of the southwest today will transition to
northeasterly flow Tuesday as moisture wraps around the system.
Models are showing a band of precipitation setting up over
southeast Montana. There is a lot of uncertainty as to where this
band will set up leading to a wide range of potential
precipitation amounts. Overall, today through Tuesday, most
locations have a 40-50% chance of getting greater than 0.5 inches
of precipitation with lower chances near the Dakotas border. Cool
700 mb temperatures near 0C and upslope flow with Tuesdays band of
precipitation will lead to snowfall above 10,000 ft. Accumulations
are expected to be in the 1-3 inch range. This has the potential
to impact travel on the Beartooth pass.
High temperatures Wednesday are expected to be in the mid 60s to
mid 70s F. Torgerson
Wednesday through Monday...
Continued upper level troughing over the northern plains will keep
weak low pressure over the central and northern plains Wednesday
through Friday. This will continue to wrap moisture into Montana
keeping PWAT values 100-150% of normal. The low pressure and
moisture plume will drift to the east diminishing precipitation
chances every day. Wednesday will see locations south of a line
from Red Lodge to Miles City have a 20-50% chance for
precipitation. Thursday, Carter and Fallon Counties have a 20%
chance for precipitation decreasing to 

NWS BYZ Office Area Forecast Discussion