Naples, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

223
FXUS63 KABR 162335
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
635 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Marginal risk (threat level 1 of 5) for severe storms across
  south central into east central SD this evening/overnight. Main
  threats are winds to around 60 mph and quarter size hail.
- A prolonged period of wet weather is expected Wednesday and
  Thursday, with most of the rain slowly coming to an end Friday
  into Friday night. Moderate rain over the same areas could
  create flooding issues. 2+ inches of rain possible (30-50%) over
  the multi- day event.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Just scooting back POPs to the west and south as our eastern and
northern areas are without any coverage/develops and as we are
capped and losing daytime heating with increased anvil clouds to
our west. See below for update to the aviation discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Surface frontal boundary is positioned from south central/southeast
South Dakota up through the southeast CWA and into MN. We are
starting to see some cumulus buildup and convection initiation
along/ahead of the front across northern NE into southeast SD as
lift increases ahead of the approaching shortwave trough ejecting
out of the Rockies. CAMs continue to suggest much of our activity
across our CWA will await until later overnight and through the day
Wednesday. That said, it still appears the southern CWA stands the
best chance for any strong/severe storms this evening as activity
across NE eventually moves northward. Questions linger as to the
overall areal coverage of precipitation through 12Z, as well as the
northward extent as there are varying solutions in the CAMs.
Rain chances ramp up to greater than 70 percent on Wednesday as the
surface low begins to take shape and move northward into the area,
where it eventually stalls out and spins over us through the end of
the week. Rain chances stay greater than 70 percent through Thursday
night, then diminish to about 40-70% Friday. So, a wet period looks
to be moving in mid/late week, with heavy rain possible by the time
everything is said and done. NBM probability for 2 inches or greater
in a 72-hr period ending at 12Z Saturday is about 30-50% across the
northern CWA, which is a bit of a shift compared to 24 hours ago.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
Initially will start with VFR conditions but as the surface low
and upper level system drift northeast will see increased
coverage of showers and weak storms. Look for gradually lowering
CIGS, possibly down to MVFR. VISBY will be mixed during periods of
convective activity but no widespread reductions from fog
expected at this time.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...07

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion