Naval Submarine Base, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

713
FXUS61 KOKX 210652
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
252 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles north today and remains nearby through Monday.
A warm front lifts to the north Monday night. A cold front pushes
through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low pressure may impact the
region late in the week into early next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to build down across New England today.
Other than some early morning localized patchy fog in a few spots, a
good amount of sunshine is expected with just some mid and upper
level clouds from time to time working up from the S and SW. With a
noticeably cooler air mass in place today it will be a few degrees
below normal with maximum temps this afternoon mainly on either side
of 70, with more lower half of the 70s across the NYC metro. Overall
a very comfortable day with dew point readings in the upper 40s and
lower 50s. For tonight skies should average out to be mostly clear
to partly cloudy, with mainly upper level clouds from time to time.
A cool early autumn type of night with minimum temperatures down
into the middle and upper 40s in the coolest locations across
interior rural locations, otherwise mainly 50s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
During Monday the high pressure ridge over the area inches east
through the day and into Monday night. Another nice day with a fair
amount of sunshine with just the mid and upper level clouds from
time to time as indicated by forecast soundings. Temperatures will
be 4 to 5 degrees warmer with air mass modification taking place as
a weak return flow ensues mainly out of the south late in the day.
With high pressure getting further east and offshore Monday night
dew points begin to inch up some, therefore it won`t be as cool as
previous nights. Lows should mainly be in the upper 50s to middle
60s.
Enough ridging should hold early on Tuesday to preclude any rain,
but then is expected to break down further later in the day and into
the evening. Some shortwave energy breaks through later in the day
and evening bringing the chance of showers. Much of the day should
remain dry as indicated by some of the short range higher resolution
guidance, but with shower chances increasing in the afternoon and
evening from west to east. It will be warmer and more humid with
temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s with dew point readings
back into the 60s, thus more of a summery feel on Tuesday on a S to
SW flow. As a cold front approaches there will be some extra lift
and instability which may lead to a few thunderstorms across the
area into Tuesday evening. With the boundary getting through the
area into the late night and early Wednesday morning look for any
instability to wane with perhaps just a few lingering showers.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NBM was closely followed through the period.
Key Points:
* Appearing unsettled at times mid to late week as frontal boundary
  moves through Wednesday, before stalling over the Mid Atlantic
  into the weekend.
* Rain chances persist through much of the period as weakening area
  of low pressure over the Tennessee Valley drifts east along the
  stalled boundary. Timing and coverage of rainfall remains highly
  uncertain.
* Temperatures expected to largely remain near normal for late
  September, afternoon highs ranging from upper 60s to mid 70s,
  though dependent on extent of cloud cover and precipitation from
  the slow moving system to the south and west.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains in control today as it slides off the New
England coast.
VFR.
Light ESE/E or vrb winds, shifting E/NE early this morning, then
becoming ESE/SE by late morning at around 8-12 kt. Occasional gusts
to mid teens possible. A general light ESE/SE flow tonight, variable
in some areas. MVFR cigs possible with stratus development late
tonight into Monday morning, though low confidence in coverage.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Light E/NE winds for the morning push, becoming SE in the aft.
Windshift timing may be off by 1 to 2 hrs.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
Late Tonight - Monday: Potential for MVFR cigs for eastern
terminals, otherwise VFR.
Monday Night: VFR to start, with MVFR ceilings possible late.
Tuesday: MVFR possible with chance of showers in the afternoon and
evening. A thunderstorm is also possible.
Wednesday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible in isolated
showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions prevail on the coastal waters through
tonight. Ocean seas get closer to 4 ft late Monday and Monday night
as marginal small craft conditions become increasingly likely into
Tuesday with 5 ft seas possible ahead of a cold front a southerly
flow. Otherwise, sub advisory conditions are expected on Wednesday
as seas should average closer to 4 ft as the winds shift to the NW
behind the cold front.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns at this time throughout the
forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents for today, followed by a
high risk developing by the afternoon on Monday with a longer period
SE swell developing.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JE
HYDROLOGY...JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion