Navarre, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

406
FXUS64 KMOB 222327
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
627 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Now through Monday...
A more active upper pattern will bring rain back to the forecast
area this week. A moderate upper trough moves east over the
Southeast, with a cool front crossing the forecast area Thursday
night in response. Ahead of the front, a pool of modest moisture
levels over the forecast at this time shifts away, with a drier
airmass moving over the forecast area for Tuesday. The isolated
showers and thunderstorms over the region today shifts west in
response. This pool of drier air moves off beginning Wednesday as
the upper trough and surface front approach and onshore flow becomes
more organized. By Thursday morning, moisture levels rise to above
2.0", with numerous showers and thunderstorms forming the forecast
area. Behind the front, cooler temperatures and a drier airmass move
over the forecast area. A second passing shortwave trough over the
weekend will have little moisture to work with, so am not expecting
any showers as the trough passes.
Looking at any issues with or ahead of the approaching front, SPC
has placed a marginal risk for severe weather encompassing
northwestern portions of the forecast area and northwest for
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Biggest issue will be available
instability. Modest upper support is bringing Bulk Wind Shear values
approaching 40 knots to areas just northwest of the forecast area
Wednesday night before the moving off to the northeast Thursday.
Instability is modest in the guidance Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday, with SBCapes topping out around 1500J/kg in most of the
guidance over the marginal area Wednesday afternoon/night. Cloud
cover is expected to limit heating and instability. If the forecast
area sees enough breaks in the cloud cover for decent heating, the
forecast area may see a few rowdy storms over the northwestern third
of the forecast area. Looking at water issues, with precipitable h20
values rising above 2", heavy rainers are possible. Movement of the
storms developing Wednesday night through Thursday is expected to be
high enough to limit, but not eliminate, localized water issues. Any
developing boundaries may allow some focusing of storm development,
so can not rule out water issues at this point. Will need to monitor.
Temperatures above seasonal norms Monday and Tuesday will drop to
around or a bit below for Thursday, due to the greater precipitation
coverage through the forecast. Temperatures rise back to above
seasonal norms for the weekend, with guidance modest in the cool
push behind the approaching cold front. High temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday drop into the low to mid 80s for
Thursday. After the front passes Thursday afternoon night, the
weekend sees a rebound in temperatures to above seasonal norms for
the weekend into the coming week, with mid to upper 80s expected
Sunday and Monday. Low temperatures rise into the around 70 to low
70s Wednesday night. The drier air and clearing skies behind the
passing front will allow overnight temperatures to drop into the low
to mid 60s north of I-10 to upper 60s to near 70 south to the coast.
Low temperatures moderate a degree or two through the weekend, with
little change in moisture levels and light winds.
Weak, diurnally driven flow early in the week will become a more
organized onshore mid week. Combined with an increasing tidal cycle,
a moderate risk of rip currents is expected Wednesday night into
Thursday night.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
VFR flight category prevails across the region through Tuesday.
Localized reduction in ceiling and visibility can`t be ruled out
late tonight into daybreak where light, patchy fog develops. Winds
remain generally light and variable tonight, becoming easterly
after daybreak and eventually southerly by the afternoon hours
Tuesday at 5 to 10 knots. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A more organized onshore flow mid week ahead of an
approaching front will bring a more moderate flow. Light to
moderate flow follows behind the front for the coming weekend.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  90  71  91  72  85  67  86 /   0  10   0  20  40  80  50  20
Pensacola   73  89  73  88  76  86  72  85 /   0  10   0  10  30  80  70  30
Destin      73  87  74  87  76  85  72  85 /   0  10   0  10  20  70  70  40
Evergreen   67  95  68  94  70  85  66  87 /   0  10   0  10  40  80  50  20
Waynesboro  67  92  68  91  69  81  64  85 /  10  10   0  40  60  70  20  10
Camden      68  92  69  92  69  82  65  83 /   0  10   0  20  50  80  30  10
Crestview   67  92  67  92  70  87  67  86 /   0  10   0  10  20  80  60  40
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion