Nelson, California Weather Forecast Discussion

804
FXUS66 KSTO 031941
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1241 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Just a few lingering showers in southern portions of forecast area
this evening as weather system that has brought rain to the area
last few days exits the area. A warm and dry period is then
expected through Thursday with temperatures generally in the mid
70s to around 80. A system may bring some precipitation late in
the week but confidence is low for that right now.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
*  TONIGHT:
- Upper level low pressure system will exit the area. Expecting
   just a few showers and a few thunderstorms through early this
   evening. Thunderstorms look to be confined to the higher
   terrain.
* SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
- A warm and dry period as weak upper troughing remains in place.
   Temperatures will warm to around 80 Monday and Tuesday with a
   slight cool down Wednesday...but dry with no significant winds.
* THURSDAY
- Around half of ensemble members move an upper trough close to
   the west coast and bring some light moisture into the area late
   Thursday into Friday. Other half of ensembles slowing it down
   or holding dry ridge in place. Like NBM`s current forecast
   broad brushing lows chances of precipitation across the area.
   At this time, this system looks low impact if it does hold
   together but will see how models trend with it.
.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
bring areas of MVFR conditions, locally IFR, across interior
NorCal until 03z-06z Saturday. Surface winds generally remain at
or below 12 kts, except for gusty and erratic winds near
thunderstorms. Locally breezy northerly wind gusts 15-20 kts
across the northern Sacramento Valley after 12z Saturday.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS STO Office Area Forecast Discussion