New Caney, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

892
FXUS64 KHGX 070429
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1129 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
- Scattered showers, some locally heavy, and storms are expected
today.
- Drier and hot days are expected in the next several days, except
along the coast where rain chances continue through most of the
week.
- Comfortable nights are expected through at least the middle of
the week as a drier airmass filters in.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
The atmosphere remains well saturated with PW values into the 1.9
to 2.2 inch range. This deep moisture combined with the passage
of a cold front will keep slight chances of rain and storms
overnight. The frontal boundary is currently extending along the
coast and will continue to move offshore early this morning before
stalling. As the day progresses, moisture convergence, daytime
heating and subtle impulses of energy embedded in the northwest
flow aloft will be enough to support another day of scattered
thunderstorms. The best chances for rain and storms will be west
of I-45, and south of I-10, where the highest PW values persist.
Ridging building in to our west will bring more stable and drier
conditions across most of SE TX after Monday. The exception will
be along the coast and Gulf waters, where the frontal boundary
will remain quasi-stationary. This will serve as a focus for daily
rain and storm chances through the end of the week.
Overall, expect a relatively dry week for most areas, with low
humidity making nights more comfortable. Overnight lows will range
from the 60s to low 70s inland. High temperatures will remain
near to slightly below normal for this time of year with readings
in the upper 80s and low 90s. Highs will become even hotter toward
the end of the workweek as ridging axis builds over the Plains.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Showers and thunderstorms should taper of this evening with VFR
conditions prevailing overnight. Showers begin again over
portions of SE Texas early Sunday morning, with a few MVFR CIGS
possible across the northern terminals (KCLL/KUTS/KCXO).
Shower/storm coverage should increase into the daytime hours.
Model guidance shows most activity beginning to the north near
College station early in the morning, then spreading south during
the afternoon. Generally, storm coverage should be greater west of
I-45, though storms outside of those areas will still be possible.
Expect showers/storms to once again taper off Sunday evening.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Isolated to scattered showers and storms, along with moderate
winds and seas up to 5 ft are expected through Monday in response
to a frontal passage. A few storms could become strong and produce
locally heavy rain. The front will continue to move over the
waters tonight, before stalling along the TX coast/northwestern
Gulf through most of the week. While winds and seas
diminish/subside after Tuesday, a daily risk of showers and storms
continues along the the stalled boundary.
Water levels are expected to remain above normal over the next
several days. For now, we continue to think they will remain below
3 feet above mean lower low water. But we could not rule out
minor coastal flooding during high tide in the lowest coastal
spots.
JM/Self
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  71  86  67  87 /  20  30   0   0
Houston (IAH)  74  88  71  88 /  20  30  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  78  88  77  87 / 100  50  20  10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion