New Middletown, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

318
FXUS63 KLMK 191921
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
321 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
*  Mainly dry and unseasonably warm for Saturday with highs in the
   upper 80s to near 90.
*  Rain chances increase during the day Sunday with scattered
   showers and thunderstorms. Some storms potentially could be
   strong with gusty winds.
*  Daily rain chances through most of next week. Beneficial rain
   ranging from 1.50" to as high as 2.50"/3.00" along and north of
   the Ohio River by Friday afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Forecast through the short term remains mostly dry and abnormally
warm as we go into the start of the weekend. Upper trough to our
west will continue to slowly march eastward as the upper ridge
breaks down and sfc high pressure retreats eastward. A series of
embedded vort max associated with the trough will work into central
KY and southern IN tonight and during the day tomorrow. But low
level dry air will greatly limit any precipitation development with
the exception of possibly a few sprinkles towards the far western
edge of our CWA overnight.
As the second embedded wave moves over the area tomorrow, some of
the Hi-Res models were hinting at some isolated development in the
afternoon. Still feel that the low-level dry air wins out especially
with forecast soundings indicating another afternoon of mixing
lowering dewpoints into the mid 50s. Lows tonight will be close to
seasonal norms in the low 60s but expect another unseasonably warm
day tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Main upper level trough axis will deepen slightly just to our west
over the Upper Midwest extending southward into the Lower MS Valley.
Increased return flow out ahead along with a strong shortwave will
increase rain/storm chances as we go into the day on Sunday. PWAT
values increase to near 1.50" by Sunday morning with the development
of a LLJ moving in over the Ohio Valley. Shower and thunderstorm
chances increase during the day on Sunday with a possible wave of
activity in the morning and then scattered developing in the
afternoon. Given how some of the model soundings are looking for
Sunday afternoon, good amount of instability could cause a storm or
two be strong with an isolated severe threat, mainly gust winds and
hail. Highs will be a bit cooler, but still a touch above normal in
the low to mid 80s.
Upper pattern becomes more zonal over the Ohio Valley resulting in a
series of disturbances working over the region next week with daily
precipitation chances. Deterministic models continue to have
temporal and spatial differences on the development of a possible
upper low later in the week that would also result in the
development of a sfc system around the Ohio Valley. Forecast QPF
continues to increase with each run with rainfall totals from Sunday
into Friday ranging between an inch and a half to around 2.50" to 3"
along and north of the Ohio River. Temperatures will also be cooler,
closer to seasonal normals near 80 degrees and depending on when
the next system develops late next week, highs could mid to upper
70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Flight categories will remain VFR through the forecast period. We
will remain under the influence of sfc high pressure and ridging
aloft. While winds we may see winds to around 5kts, they generally
look light and variable through the forecast. High clouds associated
with shower and storm activity along the Lower Mississippi Valley
will allow for high clouds to work in over central KY and southern
IN later this afternoon and evening. As has been the trend the last
couple of days isolated to scattered Cu field will develop through
the heating of the day around 6-7K. No impacts to any terminals
expected.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Saturday night for
     KYZ029>031.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Saturday night for
     INZ077>079-090>092.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN

NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion