No Name Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

733
FXUS62 KKEY 010139
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
939 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 911 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Another uneventful night is unfolding along the Florida Keys. Our
KBYX radar is detecting only a handful of isolated showers around
the forecast area, but it is also detecting more birds migrating
from South Florida. GOES-19 Cloud Top imagery shows some cloud
cover across the region, and this is likely cloud debris from
Hurricane Imelda. The 00Z KKEY sounding shows some moisture
between the surface and near 700mb, but above that is an abundance
of dry air. Since Cloud Top has difficulty detecting low level
clouds, its possible there may be a little more cloud cover than
the product suggests. Either way, our partly cloudy skies look
like they`ll linger overnight. The sounding also revealed a
calculated PWAT of 1.74", which is just a little bit higher than
the past few soundings. But, we are lacking in instability with a
mixed layer CAPE of around 700 J/kg, and there doesn`t seem to be
a substantial, larger scale lifting mechanism available. For these
reasons, we will go ahead and continue to carry the inherited 30
percent PoPs, even though it may be a little closer to 20 percent
at this time. Temperatures along our island communities are in the
mid 80s, and dew points are in the mid 70s, so the air isn`t
terribly uncomfortable as we write this. No changes are needed to
this evening update.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 911 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the
Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, Hurricane Imelda will
continue to track northeastward, and will allow for higher
pressure to build in its place, and gentle to moderate west to
northwest breezes will gradually slacken. The high pressure over
the Eastern Seaboard will slowly slide eastward into the western
North Atlantic, with mainly gentle northwesterly breezes
eventually veering to the northeast to east for the middle to
latter part of the work week. Winds will then clock around towards
the southeast towards the end of the week and into the upcoming
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 911 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the
TAF period. Chances of rain are low, 20 percent, so opting to keep
any mentions of VCSH out of the package for now. Northwesterly
surface winds of 10 to 15 knots will gradually turn around the
clock overnight and into the early morning while decreasing to
near 10 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  79  88  79  89 /  20  20  30  30
Marathon  79  88  79  87 /  30  30  30  30
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....DP
Data Acquisition.....DR
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion