Oak Grove, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

171
FXUS63 KGID 211132
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
632 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Spotty thunderstorms continue through around midday today.
  The most likely area is in northern Kansas and portions of
  Nebraska near and south of Highway 6. Severe weather is not
  expected.
- Scattered thunderstorms become likely again Monday evening
  into Monday night. Some of these storms could be severe with
  hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts near 60 MPH.
- Off and on rain and a few thunderstorms continue Tuesday and
  Tuesday night. Severe weather is unlikely
- A few t-storms could linger into Wednesday morning, but dry
  conditions are expected for the rest of the week and into the
  weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue
to push across the area this morning. The highest coverage is
expected to be over northern KS, but a few showers and storms
could bleed northward into Nebraska as well. Models now show
this activity lingering a bit longer...possibly to around noon
or shortly thereafter. Instability and shear are not supportive
for these storms to become strong or severe.
This afternoon, storms are expected to redevelop to our south
and east. Although it could be JUST barely to our east if the
recent runs of the HRRR are to be believed. Light south winds
and clearing skies should allow temperatures to reach the upper
70s and low 80s (near normal for late September).
Monday will trend a few degrees warmer than today, ahead of an
approaching upper low. A few storms could develop as early as
Monday afternoon, but better coverage is not expected to arrive
until later into the evening or overnight as the upper system
and associated surface front push into the area. Convective
parameters are favorable for at least some marginally severe
storms, but there is still quite a bit of spread on the CAMs
regarding location. Therefore the entire area remains in a
Marginal Risk.
The severe risk falls off on Tuesday, but periods of rain and
thunderstorms continue as the surface low slowly traverses the
region. For many areas (especially the southern half of the
area), it could be a very rainy day. Multiple rounds of rain
could lead to minor flooding, but that will be somewhat
dependent on whatever rainfall falls with the storms Monday
night. The latest NBM and global ensembles highlight a 40-60%
chance for 1"+ of rain for areas near and south of Highway 6.
Localized rain amounts almost certainly will be higher than
that.
Coverage of rain (and some lingering weak t-storms) gradually
pushes southward Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Dry
conditions are then favored through the rest of the week. After
a cooldown Tuesday/Wednesday temperatures also gradually trend
warmer through the end of the week and into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Cluster of rain showers near KLXN will continue to track
eastward through the EAR/GRI area this morning. Ceilings should
remain largely VFR, but a brief period of MVFR ceilings cannot
be ruled out (20% chance). A few rumbles of thunder also cannot
be ruled out, but this cluster has exhibited very little
lightning recently.
Skies clear this afternoon and evening. Winds will be out of the
south to southwest today with gusts to around 15kts at times.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion