Oakland, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

379
FXUS66 KMFR 282352
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
452 PM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.Updated AVIATION Discussion...
&&
.AVIATION...29/00Z TAFs...Generally VFR conditions prevail across
the region, though wildfire smoke from the Moon Complex is resulting
in MVFR visibilities in the Umpqua Basin, including at Roseburg.
Visibilities are gradually improving across the
Rogue/Illinois/Applegate Valleys, but expect hazy conditions to
persist overnight into early Monday. Meanwhile, gusty south to
southwest winds will persist into this evening in the Shasta Valley
and east of the Cascades. Winds ease overnight, but will pick up
again Monday morning.
A front is approaching the region today, resulting in these gusty
winds, and will move onshore around sunrise Monday and progress
inland through Monday afternoon. This will bring lowering ceilings
from west to east with increasing terrain obscurations along and
west of the Cascades by Monday morning. Additionally, late tonight
into early Monday morning, there could be some low level wind shear
concerns along the coast north of Cape Blanco between 08-15z. Expect
generally a mix of low end VFR with MVFR conditions with this
frontal passage, though heavier rain could bring periods of IFR
conditions at times. /BR-y
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 327 PM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025/
DISCUSSION...The main update was to issue another Wind Advisory
for the Shasta Valley and much of Lake County into far eastern
Klamath County during Tuesday into Tuesday evening. This is for
the second of two cold fronts. A Wind Advisory remains in effect
for a similar area with the first front now through 5 PM PDT
Monday afternoon for the Shasta Valley, and through 8 PM PDT
Monday evening for portions of Lake County, as well as a Wind
Advisory for higher elevation portions of eastern Curry and
Western Josephine County through Monday morning. Winds over
southwest Oregon on Tuesday look to be just a touch weaker than on
Monday. Conditions on both days look to be mainly on the low end
of Advisory levels.
A few light showers may develop over the Warner Mountains this
evening. Otherwise, cold frontal rain is on track to reach the
coast late tonight and spread to the Cascades during Monday before
weakening over the east side. Isolated thunderstorms are expected
to accompany the front, with the highest probability Monday
afternoon along a swath from western Siskiyou County into
Josephine, Jackson, and eastern Douglas counties.
A very brief break between systems Monday night into Tuesday
morning will be followed by the second front later Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Compared to the first front, the model trend has
been for a more dramatic weakening of this front as it moves
inland. Still enough for gusty southerly winds and a high
probability of light winds.
Showers are expected on Wednesday as the trough shifts inland,
with activity mainly from the coast to the Cascades. When all is
said and done, 1 to 3 inches of rain are expected during the first
half of the week for the coast, a quarter of an inch to an inch
elsewhere on the west side, and up to a quarter of an inch on the
east side.
Clouds and cool temperatures persist on Thursday as the upper
trough remains over the region, but additional showers will be
light and few.
Dry weather and a modest warming trend is likely to follow with
weak ridging on Friday, a weak shortwave trough on Saturday, then
the beginning of a rex block pattern early next week.
MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, September 28, 2025...Gusty
southerly winds are building this afternoon, with steep seas
expected in all waters by this afternoon into tonight. Very steep
and hazardous seas with gale gusts are expected in waters beyond
10 nm from shore by early Monday morning, with steep seas
continuing for inner waters. As winds ease later in the morning,
seas look to fall back below advisory levels before Monday
afternoon.
Below advisory seas continue until Tuesday morning, when a second
front brings another round of gusty southerly winds. A Gale Advisory
in place for Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening reflects the
expected timing of this second front. Unsettled seas are possible
just before as well as after the second front, but additional
guidance will help to fine-turn the expected conditions in these
times. -TAD
FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, September 28, 2025...
Humidities continue to increase during the day and overnight as an
approaching cold front looks to bring widespread rainfall through
the day Monday. Gusty southerly winds are the main concern for fire
weather. Wind Advisories are in place for terrain in Curry and
Josephine counties in wind-aligned (Gusts up to 45 mph) and the
Shasta Valley (Gusts up to 50 mph) from this afternoon into Monday
morning. On Monday afternoon, winds in those areas ease and increase
over east side terrain. A Wind Advisory for areas in western Lake
County on Monday afternoon covers areas where wind gusts may reach
55 mph.
Winds ease on Monday night but return with a second front on
Tuesday, bringing similar gusty southerly winds to similar areas as
well as another round of rainfall. This second round will generally
remain over west side areas, although some showers may reach just
east of the Cascades. -TAD
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT Monday for ORZ024-030-031.
CA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT Monday for CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday
     for PZZ350-356.
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ370-
     376.
Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Monday for
     PZZ370-376.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion