Oakwood, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

555
FXUS64 KOUN 071139
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
639 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
- Cooler weather continues today into early this week, followed
   by a gradual warmup through the week.
- Very low chances for showers late Sunday night through Monday
   night, mainly northern Oklahoma.
- A few strong storms possible late Monday afternoon and evening
   across the north.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
After another cool start to the day southeast winds and quite a bit
of solar insolation should allow temperatures to warm into the upper
70s to middle 80s across the area Sunday afternoon.
Some upslope flow and an upper shortwave dropping southeast out of
the central Rockies will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon across the High Plains of Colorado. This activity
will then propagate southeast toward northwest Oklahoma this
evening. Although an overall weakening trend is expected with this
activity as if moves out into the Plains, a modest llj will aid in
keeping some chance of this activity making a run at far northwest
Oklahoma late tonight. Otherwise, increasing cloud cover and south
winds should keep overnight low in the 60s areawide.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
As we move through the day Monday, upper shortwave may aid in
allowing convection to continue across mainly northwest into north
central Oklahoma. With daytime heating more robust convection may
develop across Kansas into northern Oklahoma Monday afternoon.
With modest instability and deep layer shear can not rule out a
few strong to possibly severe storms.
Pressure falls across the High Plains will tighten the pressure
gradient across the Plain states with some stronger south winds on
Monday. Although the cloud cover may mitigate the response you
would otherwise expect with the stronger south winds in afternoon
highs, still looks like much of the area will warm into the 80s
Monday afternoon.
Another shortwave moves out of the Rockies Monday night and modest
llj may bring another chance for a few showers/storms to parts of
the area Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
Otherwise, we begin to see upper level ridge begin to build
northeast out into the Plains Tuesday. This will begin a
warmer/drier period as we go through the week.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
As we move though the middle and latter part of the upcoming week,
upper ridge will dominate the weather across Texas northward through
Oklahoma. Main storm track will remain to our west and north around
this ridge. From Wednesday into at least the first half of next
weekend looks to remain dry with temperatures back around or
slightly above normal for early/mid September with upper 80s and low
to middle 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Areas of patchy to dense fog and very low ceilings across
southcentral Oklahoma may degrade two of our terminals (KDUA &
KSPS) to an LIFR category through 14Z while terminal KLAW may
degrade to an MVFR category for the same time period. Although
the very low stratus & fog is approaching central Oklahoma, not
enough confidence to TEMPO it into the KOUN & KOKC terminals at
issuance time but will monitor it and make amendments if
necessary. Otherwise all terminals should stay in a VFR category
through the remainder of the forecast period. Current light &
variable surface winds will increase out of the southeast up to
10kts by 16Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  60  80  62 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         83  63  86  64 /   0   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  83  61  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           80  61  83  61 /   0  10  30  20
Ponca City OK     80  59  82  61 /   0   0  10  20
Durant OK         82  58  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...68

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion