Old Mobeetie, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

747
FXUS64 KAMA 061353
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
853 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Latest satellite imagery shows widespread low level clouds across
the Panhandles this morning. Fog has really not developed this
morning due to dew point depressions remaining around 2-4 degrees
based on the latest surface obs. Fog is unlikely to form at this
point as we are beyond sunrise and temperatures will slowly warm
up. Isolated rain showers have developed over southern Deaf Smith
and Randall counties this morning with only very light rain or
sprinkles expected with this activity. Only minor adjustments were
made to the forecast for today, including decreasing rain chances
and reducing temperatures as cloud cover will linger over some
locations for much of the day.
Muscha
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- Areas of drizzle and mist are expected through morning hour of
  Saturday with potential to see dense fog around sunrise.
- Shower and thunderstorm potential is still present Saturday
  night into Sunday, but is now favoring the Southern Panhandles.
- Precipitation chances decrease through next week with
  temperatures in the 80s to low 90s returning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
As of late tonight latest satellite imagery has seen the front
stall well south of the Panhandles, which has left us with no real
lifting mechanism for all the present moisture. Instead the
Panhandles are seeing all this moisture condense into a light
drizzle or mist that may transition to a dense fog by the early
morning hours of Saturday. It is during Saturday that the latest
CAMs have taken a drastic turn from previous days with many of
them now seeing chances of showers drop to below 30% for the day
and night. At this time, latest observations and satellite imagery
are in agreement with this assessment with the expected track of
what is left of Tropical Storm Lorena much further south than
originally called for. With the track this far south, it will be
hard for the Panhandles to get that extra moisture push needed to
see showers flourish, especially during the overnight time frame
that was originally expected. Instead shower and thunderstorm
activity will be much more isolated and focused to the southern
Panhandles where our highest moisture content will be. Sunday will
also look to suffer from this drier outcome as most CAMs see
precipitation chances drop to 15% or less for the afternoon and
evening. Of course rainfall totals have also drop with most models
only seeing a couple of tenths possible this weekend, with the
only exception being localized higher amounts created by an
isolated thunderstorm. Otherwise, look for temperatures to
slightly rebound from the cold frontal passage with afternoon
highs returning to the 70s to low 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Monday, model agreement projects the present upper-level ridge
starting to push off the Western United States with arrival of a
closed low to the Pacific Northwest. This eastward exit of the the
ridge and associated high will see the Panhandles slowly lose its
connection to the gulf moisture with precipitation chances
shifting more to the eastern Panhandles for Monday and Tuesday.
Unfortunately with the drier scenario now coming to fruition this
weekend, models have significantly back off chances of
precipitation (15% or less) thanks to a lack of linger moisture.
Moving into the mid-week has the Panhandles getting a couple of
dry days as both the GFS and ECMWF places the ridge overhead while
the expected trough digs south into Nevada. By Friday active
weather may be upon the Panhandles once again with the expect
trough finally starting to push east. However the exact eastward
path of this trough is still a bit uncertain, so have left chances
of precipitation under 20% for now. Otherwise, look for
temperatures to warm once again with most of the week looking at
afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A large shield of low clouds remains across the panhandles causing
IFR conditions. Currently KAMA and KDHT are impacted by the IFR
conditions from this cloud deck. KGUY is in an area of more
scattered clouds at least for the lower levels with MVFR to VFR
conditions. Through the morning the cloud shield will most likely
lift and thin leading to a gradual increase in the conditions.
Underneath this cloud deck there is patchy mist and fog that can
also lead to reduced conditions. Uncertainty remains if the low
cloud shield will reform for this evening producing another round
of lowered conditions. The current forecast reflects that
conditions will stay improved due to the low cloud being more
scattered. This can change if the clouds do indeed become thick
again in the low levels.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...98

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion