Old Picacho, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

373
FXUS64 KEPZ 122342 AAA
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
542 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 527 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
- Overnight showers and embedded thunderstorms expected overnight
   tonight and Saturday morning.
- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.
   Isolated severe hail and severe wind gusts possible.
- Moderate moisture returns for isolated showers and storms Monday
   and Tuesday, and possibly further into the week ahead.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
The Borderland is sandwiched between high pressure centered over
central TX and an advancing upper trough over the Four Corners. A
plume of moisture is currently settled over the Continental Divide
and AZ/NM border, but will continue to shift eastward through the
overnight hours. Expecting thunderstorms to fire off along the
Continental Divide early this afternoon and will spread eastward
towards the Rio Grande by early this evening. Showery activity with
embedded thunderstorms expected overnight tonight for a large
portion of the area.
Continued showery activity with embedded thunderstorms persist into
the late morning hours. The next round of thunderstorms starts up
early afternoon Saturday. Better moisture and dynamics will be at
play allowing for scattered to numerous coverage but isolated severe
wind gusts and severe hail will be possible with the stronger
storms. Above average moisture content in the atmosphere will allow
for these storms to be capable of torrential rainfall but storms
will be moving at a good clip (anywhere from 15- 35mph), but if
storms start to train (rain over an area multiple times), then that
could cause some flash flooding. 0-6km shear is pretty impressive
for this area, around 30-40kt. This will allow for organized storms
that are fairly long lasting. Hodographs are taking on a straight
sort of look which would promote left and right moving supercells.
Gusty outflow winds will be strong enough to loft up dust over dust
prone areas (especially the Lordsburg Playa). Dust may not be too
much of an issue if a good wetting rain occurs over the Playa
tonight.
Storms will exit with the trough, which should be around the early
evening time frame Saturday. Sunday is still looking quiet as dry
air pushes in but early next week moisture gets pushed up from the
south allowing for run of the mill afternoon thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Tstms are currently moving nely across the area and are likely to
persist through the critical TAF period. MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will
be likely with any direct hits to terminals. Tstms will be
capable of lcl and brief heavy rainfall as well as sudden and
strong wind gusts. Activity will diminish aft 13/06Z but only for
a brief window. Another round of tstms is expected tomorrow, some
of which will be capable of strong winds and large hail. The
strongest cells will favor the RGV and ewd in the aftn and into
the evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Low fire danger for the week ahead as min RH values stay above
critical thresholds (lowlands: 25-40%, mountains: 40-60%). 20 foot
winds remain light each afternoon (at or below 10 mph) becoming calm
overnight. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected this
afternoon focusing along and west of the Rio Grande. Storms spread
eastward tonight focusing over a large portion of the CWA with
mostly showery activity with embedded thunderstorms. This showery
activity should last through much of the morning hours Saturday.
The next round of thunderstorms will be tomorrow afternoon but
storms will be a bit more long lasting and capable of becoming
severe (either wind gusts 58+ mph and/or 1"+ hail). Storm activity
should be done with by early Saturday evening with drier conditions
filtering in behind it. Sunday looks quiet and mostly dry. Moisture
pushes in from the south early next week allowing for run of the
mill type of thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  71  89  69  91 /  50  40  50   0
Sierra Blanca            63  86  61  86 /  10  60  70  20
Las Cruces               64  83  61  86 /  60  60  30   0
Alamogordo               63  83  61  86 /  60  60  40   0
Cloudcroft               48  62  45  65 /  50  60  40  10
Truth or Consequences    62  81  59  84 /  80  60  20   0
Silver City              57  75  54  79 /  80  70  10   0
Deming                   64  85  60  89 /  80  60  30   0
Lordsburg                63  81  60  83 /  70  60  10   0
West El Paso Metro       69  86  68  88 /  50  40  40   0
Dell City                67  87  64  90 /  30  50  50  10
Fort Hancock             70  91  68  91 /  20  60  60  20
Loma Linda               63  81  61  82 /  40  60  50  10
Fabens                   69  88  67  89 /  30  50  50  10
Santa Teresa             66  85  65  86 /  50  40  40   0
White Sands HQ           66  85  64  87 /  60  60  40   0
Jornada Range            64  82  61  85 /  70  70  30   0
Hatch                    64  85  60  88 /  60  60  30   0
Columbus                 65  86  64  87 /  70  50  30   0
Orogrande                64  83  61  85 /  60  60  40   0
Mayhill                  54  75  50  78 /  40  70  40  10
Mescalero                51  73  49  76 /  60  60  50  10
Timberon                 51  70  48  74 /  50  60  50  10
Winston                  52  75  46  78 /  80  40  10   0
Hillsboro                58  82  55  85 /  80  60  20   0
Spaceport                61  81  58  83 /  70  70  30   0
Lake Roberts             52  76  48  81 /  80  70  10   0
Hurley                   58  78  55  82 /  80  70  20   0
Cliff                    60  82  56  86 /  70  50  10   0
Mule Creek               57  79  54  82 /  60  30   0   0
Faywood                  59  78  56  81 /  70  70  20   0
Animas                   63  83  61  85 /  60  60  10   0
Hachita                  62  81  59  83 /  70  60  30   0
Antelope Wells           61  83  60  83 /  60  60  30  10
Cloverdale               60  77  59  80 /  60  60  30  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...99

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion