Olton, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

572
FXUS64 KLUB 300540
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1240 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1237 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
- Hot temperatures and dry conditions expected the rest of the
   week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Hopefully y`all enjoyed the cloudy skies and cooler conditions from
yesterday because it will the last for this week at least. Current
water vapor imagery shows a dry slot of air filling in over the
region. Therefore, can expect the cloudy skies to clear out west to
east in the next few hours. Current radar imagery shows lingering
showers over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern South
Plains. These showers are expected to dissipate in the next couple
of hours. The upper troughing over the High Plains will move away
from the region by this afternoon as ridging begins to build over
Mexico and a secondary trough treks towards CONUS just off the coast
of the Pacific Northwest. Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail
through much of the day, however will shift to zonal flow as the
trough leaves the region. Southerly surface flow and mostly sunny
skies will result in a slight warming of temperatures compared to
yesterday. Highs will be in the lower 80s over northwestern zones
and lower 90s across southeastern zones. Tonight will be quiet and
cool with lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
The main focus for the long term forecast are hot temperatures and
dry conditions through the rest of the week. Upper ridging over
Mexico will begin to build over NM with the eastern edge clipping
the Texas Panhandle through the day Wednesday. Height and thickness
increases will increase temperatures to the upper 80s to mid 90s on
Wednesday. Some models indicate the possibility for precipitation
developing over the Texas panhandle and tracking into our region
over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling
Plains Wednesday afternoon. However, confidence on this occurring is
low at the moment, therefore kept NBM PoPs as is. The upper ridging
will continue to build and shift over our region the latter half of
the week effectively increasing temperatures to well above seasonal
normal and keeping conditions dry. Highs are expected to be in the
90s for much of the region through the weekend. The upper ridging
will get pushed away from the region as an upper trough swings over
western CONUS over the Intermountain West. Height and thickness
falls will gradually cool temperatures to around seasonal normal the
beginning of next week. Models indicate the possibility of a front
tracking through the region Tuesday of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Some fog continues to remain possible for PVW before sunrise and
could lower VIS to MVFR/IFR, but the probability is too low for a
TAF mention. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...51

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion