415 FXUS63 KIND 211822 AFDINDArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 222 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening, becoming numerous overnight.
- Additional rainfall expected tomorrow, with highest chances of moderate to heavy rainfall rates over southern Indiana.
- Milder with daily chances for showers and a few thunderstorms through much of the work week.
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.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)... Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Strong ridging over the Western Conus has led to broad but weakly forced troughing central CONUS, of which in now reaching central Indiana. Although the longwave pattern is weakly forced, shortwaves are relatively strong inducing moderate lift across the region. This will likely lead to periodic rain and storm chances of which began yesterday and will continue through the short term. Initially, the thought was there would be some diurnally induced convection this afternoon; however, an increase in mid level subsidence ahead of the next wave, partially observed on the 12Z ILX sounding and better observed on IND ACARs soundings has led to a decrease in coverage of precipitation across a majority of Indiana and is expected to continue through the afternoon. Temperatures will remain elevated today, but curtailed a bit by widespread cloud cover. The current expectation is for highs in the mid 80s
Forcing will ramp up overnight as an upper level jet moves to the northwest of the area, and upper heights fall as the upper trough moves closer. Moisture will be plentiful, with southwest winds providing and uninhibited flow of moisture into the area through the night. Minimal, but still sufficient enough, diurnal cooling will help stabilize the PBL tonight, but lapse rates above 3kft should still be high enough for some embedded elevated convection within numerous showers. Total rainfall amounts will likely vary greatly depending on mesoscale features unresolvable at this time, but generally rainfall amounts are expected to be between 0.25-1.00 inches tonight into tomorrow morning.
Additional rain is expected later tomorrow through tomorrow night ahead of another aforementioned shortwave, there is still some model ambiguity in specific placement of greatest rainfall, but slightly amplified PWATs and more organized forcing may lead to an additional 0.5-1.5 inches over portions of central Indiana. That said, the greatest probability of occurrence for moderate to heavy rainfall late Monday is over southern central Indiana.
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.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)... Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Tuesday through Sunday...
Compared to the dry days of weeks past, large changes are expected in our weather this week as daily chances for rain will persist.
Tuesday through Friday Morning...
Models suggest broad troughing in place aloft over the upper midwest and into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, with the development of a cut off upper level low by Wednesday and Thursday. This upper low will slowly pass across Illinois and Indiana through Friday morning. Within the lower levels during this time a surface low will push out of the Middle Mississippi Valley with a cold front and push toward Michigan by Friday morning. This will keep Central Indiana within the warm sector for a few days with the upper low in place aloft. Forecast soundings suggest saturation within the column front time to time during this period with pwats over 1 inch. Thus given all these ingredients, chances for rain each day, with best chances on Wednesday and Thursday seem reasonable. Given the expected clouds and rain, highs will only reach the middle and upper 70s with lows in the 60s.
Friday through Sunday...
On Friday in the wake of the cold front and slowly departing upper low, models suggest weak ridging and subsidence building within the pattern aloft along with the departure of the surface low and cold front. Should this signal hold, this would suggest rain ending on Friday morning and dry weather arriving for Friday afternoon and into Saturday.
However, this is then followed on Saturday Night and Sunday to the re-development of the upper low over TN and KY, with wrap around easterly flow in place across Central and southern Indiana. Light rain chances will persist at that time due to this feature, although surface high pressure appears to remain in place over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Confidence in this solution is very low at this time due the overall evolution and progression of the previous upper low. Temperatures through this time should be at or below normals as cooler northeasterly flow would be expected.
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.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1215 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Impacts:
- Scattered convection possible this evening - Numerous showers and some storms overnight and continue through tomorrow - MVFR ceilings possible tomorrow
Discussion:
The main area of showers and thunderstorms has moved off to the north. There is a chance for an isolated shower this afternoon, but coverage was too low to include in the TAF at this time. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening. More widespread showers will move in overnight tonight with occasional MVFR VIS and CIGs
Drier low levels will keep prevailing ceilings outside of rain in VFR through 06Z Monday, then some MVFR ceilings may develop by 12Z Monday.
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.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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SHORT TERM...Updike LONG TERM...Puma AVIATION...Updike
NWS IND Office Area Forecast Discussion