Orion Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

101
FXUS64 KLZK 070713
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
213 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
-Scattered to widespread rain chances will remain in the forecast
 today, particularly across the eastern half of the state.
-Additional rainfall amounts today will be reserved as the bulk of
 the precipitation associated with this system fell Monday into
 Monday night.
-The greatest area for measurable precipitation will be across eastern
 Arkansas where some locations may see an additional tenth to
 quarter inch of rainfall today with the highest additional
 amounts between a quarter inch to half inch of rainfall in a few
 isolated locations across eastern Arkansas and far northeastern
 Arkansas where the highest additional rainfall amounts are
 anticipated.
-Cooler and more seasonal conditions should return by mid to late
 week,in the wake of a cold front that will move across the state
 later today from northwest to southeast, with settled weather
 prevailing thereafter.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
As of 2 AM CDT, light to moderate rain continues to fall across
portions of northeastern Arkansas associated with a sfc low pressure
system that is positioned over the Mid-South region of the CONUS.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT:
An upper lvl broad, positively-tilted trof over the northern Plains
region of the CONUS combined with an inverted trof of low pressure
at the sfc will advect moist southerly to southeasterly flow into
Arkansas. The moisture influx, combined with isentropic ascent will
assist in the potential for scattered showers and storms, especially
across the eastern half of Arkansas. A potential for local heavy
rainfall does exist (similar to Sunday) as a modest 850 mb low-level
jet develops over the Mid-South region of the CONUS. The presence of
the development of this 850 mb low-level jet may lead to a few
maxima or enhanced rainfall totals that near a half inch of rainfall
with an outlier chance a few locations approach and/or exceed 1 inch
of total rainfall today across eastern Arkansas, but confidence is
low.
Expect temperatures to remain above normal by 5 to 8 degrees overall
as a cold front will begin to move across the state today from
northwest to southeast, but the drier and cooler airmass will not be
felt at the sfc until Wednesday across Arkansas.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
The airmass behind the FROPA will be cooler and drier which will
bring temperatures overall to average for this time of the year
across the Natural State. The sfc high pressure center will shift
into the Great Lakes region of the CONUS which will lead to
northeasterly sfc winds for the middle and later portion of the work
week. Expect plentiful amounts of sunshine with fair weather
conditions overall. The next opportunity for precipitation does
appear to be on the horizon for the state of next week; however this
far out model confidence is low overall and cohesion between models
does not exist at the moment.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Expect lowered CIGS and VSBY to as low as LIFR flight category
across all terminals from the state of the forecast period through
late morning Tuesday and into as late as Tuesday afternoon across
the eastern terminals of KPBF and KLLQ. A lowered cloud deck in
tandem with location which saw some rainfall today will keep CIGS
and VSBY between MVFR and LIFR flight category across all sites
until Tuesday around mid-day for the majority of terminals. VCSH
will also be present across sites, over this period of early Tuesday
morning and into Tuesday evening for the sites of KPBF and KLLQ.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     84  59  77  50 /  20  30   0   0
Camden AR         85  65  81  56 /  20  10   0   0
Harrison AR       79  55  74  50 /  10  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    86  64  79  55 /  10  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  84  65  77  55 /  20  20   0   0
Monticello AR     85  66  81  57 /  20  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      87  63  79  54 /  10  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  83  57  76  50 /  10  10   0   0
Newport AR        84  62  76  52 /  30  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     83  64  78  55 /  20  10   0   0
Russellville AR   88  64  80  55 /  10  10   0   0
Searcy AR         84  63  77  52 /  20  20   0   0
Stuttgart AR      82  64  77  55 /  20  10   0   0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion