Orono, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

512
FXUS61 KCAR 010746
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
346 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from Canada today, and then crest
over the waters on Thursday. High pressure will remain ridged
south of the waters Friday through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Trough moves east away from Maine, as high pressure from Canada
moves east into New England. Pressure gradient between the two
systems will lead to gusty winds over Maine today into this
evening. Partially cloudy skies today in the north, and mostly
clear Downeast. Shortwave moving out of the region from northern
trough may advect in a little moisture to northeastern
Aroostook county, producing a very slight chance of a stray
short-lived shower in the north. Hurricane Humberto and Imelda
continue to track east in the Atlantic well to our south. There
will be heightened seas and winds along the coast and outer
waters, resulting in increased rip risk today. Highs in the
low-50s in northern Maine, and low-60s Downeast.
Tonight, skies clear out and winds begin to die down, resulting
in a good chance of decoupling and dropping temperatures.
Upper-20s and 30s possible in the north, and mid-to-upper 30s
possible in the Penobscot and Downeast region. Growing season is
done for northern Maine, but there is currently a frost
advisory out for southern Penobscot given the potential for
temperatures to drop into the low-to-mid 30s.
Thursday, 1035mb high pressure crests over Maine, leading to
clear skies and calm conditions. High temperatures in the
upper-50s in the north and low-60s Downeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will remain ridged across the region Thursday
night with mostly clear skies. Patchy, mostly river valley, fog
is also possible late. High pressure then begins to move
south of the area Friday, while a cold front moves south across
Quebec province. Expect mostly sunny skies across the forecast
area Friday. High pressure moves south of the region Friday
night while the slowing front approaches northern Maine. Aloft,
an upper level disturbance will track north of Maine. Generally
expect mostly clear/partly cloudy skies across northern areas
Friday night, though could also have a slight chance of showers
late toward the Saint John Valley. Mostly clear skies will occur
Downeast. High pressure will remain ridged south of the region
Saturday, while the frontal boundary stalls across the forecast
area. However, exactly where the frontal boundary stalls is
still uncertain. Expect partly sunny skies north, mostly sunny
Downeast, Saturday. Temperatures will be at above normal levels
Friday/Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With the developing return flow around high pressure to the
south, the frontal boundary should begin to move back northward
Saturday night. Aloft, a disturbance will begin to track north
of the region. Expect partly cloudy skies along with a slight
chance of showers across northern areas Saturday night, with
mostly clear skies Downeast. The frontal boundary should move
north of the region Sunday while the disturbance tracks north
of Maine. Expect partly sunny skies along with a slight
chance/chance of showers across northern areas Sunday with
mostly sunny skies Downeast. High pressure remains ridged south
of the region Monday/Tuesday. A cold front could begin to
approach the region later Tuesday, though the timing is still
uncertain. Generally expect mostly clear skies Monday, with
partly cloudy skies Tuesday. However, dependent on the timing of
the front, could also have a slight chance/chance of showers
across mostly northern areas Tuesday. Temperatures will be at
much above normal levels Sunday through Tuesday, possibly
approaching record levels at some locations early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR conditions today. Some clouds will move
into terminals by daybreak, but expecting ceilings to stay
above VFR conditions. Winds from the N, with sustained around
10-15kts and gusts up to 25kts possible. Winds will stay
elevated throughout the day, until relaxing by nighttime. Very
slight chance for a stray short-lived rain shower to move
through eastern terminals in the afternoon.
KBGR/KBHB: VFR conditions today. Winds from the N, with
sustained around 10-15kts and gusts up to 30kts possible. Winds
will stay elevated throughout the day, until relaxing by
nighttime.
SHORT TERM:
Thursday night...Variable conditions with any patchy fog.
Otherwise, VFR. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots.
Friday through Friday night...VFR. Slight chance of showers
late north. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
around 20 knots Friday, then 5 to 10 knots Friday night.
Saturday through Sunday...Occasional MVFR possible north.
Otherwise, VFR. Slight chance of showers north early Saturday
then again later Saturday night into early Sunday. Variable
winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday/Saturday night. Variable winds
5 to 10 knots, becoming south/southwest around 10 knots Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas elevated due to Hurricane Humberto
passing well to the south today. Gusty winds over 25kts and seas
approaching 3 to 8 ft. Winds and seas slowly decrease back to
below SCA criteria by Thursday. Winds from the N.
SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
Thursday night through Saturday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon RH values in the 40s to low 50s, before decreasing
again Thursday/Friday with mostly 30s. Winds will gust around 25
mph Wednesday, then be generally 10 mph or less Thursday/Friday.
Wetting rain is very unlikely until perhaps Tuesday or
Wednesday next week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ015.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Brennan
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Brennan/Norcross
Marine...Brennan/Norcross
Fire Weather...Brennan

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion