Orr, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

712
FXUS63 KDLH 281838
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
138 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near-critical fire weather conditions due to low relative humidity
  persist until around sunset today.
- An abrupt increase in northeast winds off of Lake Superior
  late Monday afternoon/evening and strong northeast winds on
  Tuesday may lead to a risk for rip currents along Minnesota
  and Wisconsin Point Beaches.
- Warm and dry conditions persist until late this week, with
  the potential for a pattern breakdown and increasing rain
  chances next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Today - Tonight:
Surface high pressure centered over Wisconsin/Lake Michigan today is
keeping skies clear and conditions dry across the Northland with
highs topping out in the mid 70s to low 80s this afternoon away from
the immediate vicinity of the North Shore along Lake Superior. With
breezy southwest winds persisting until around sunset--particularly
in northeast Minnesota--along with low humidity conditions, near-
critical fire weather conditions continue until around sunset. Winds
decrease after sunset and turn light out of the south for tonight.
Expect low temperatures to drop into the mid 40s to mid 50s tonight,
as well.
Monday - Wednesday:
Predominantly dry and warm conditions with daily highs in the 70s to
low 80s for most of the Northland--and 60s to low 70s for locations
near Lake Superior mainly on Tuesday and Wednesday--persist through
the first half of the work week as the mid/upper level ridge axis
remains overhead in a pseudo-Rex Block pattern just east of the
Northland. The warmest day will be Monday, where even a few mid-80s
could occur in central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin. For
comparison, these high temperatures will be 10-20 degrees above
normal high temperatures for late September, which are typically
between 60-65F. While dewpoints/humidity should be slightly higher
than this weekend with lighter winds for the most part, the dry
airmass in place and lack of rain may start to increase fire weather
conditions heading into early October if we don`t start to see
appreciable rainfall soon. The main change from this weekend will be
more clouds mixing in during this timeframe instead of the
completely sunny skies we have been seeing.
An abrupt switch to northeast winds is possible late Monday
afternoon/evening, especially for areas near the Twin Ports, with
stronger northeast winds off Lake Superior persisting on Tuesday
with and behind a weak backdoor cold front. A Beach Hazard Statement
may be needed late Monday afternoon and evening for rip current
potential at Minnesota and Wisconsin Point beaches if the winds are
strong enough with the wind switch and will likely be needed on
Tuesday given the current wind forecast.
Thursday Through Next Weekend:
Some global model ensembles and deterministic guidance do try to
bring weak shortwave energy over the top of the NW side of the ridge
for the Northland in association with weak cold front Wednesday
night and Thursday, which could produce some low-end rainfall
potential (10-30%) in northern Minnesota given PWAT values around 1-
1.25", but the forcing with these features is subtle and lingering
dry low-level air may inhibit precipitation reaching the surface
entirely. Therefore, confidence in any measurable rainfall Wednesday
night-Thursday is low.
Global model ensembles and clusters still vary quite a bit on the
overall evolution of the weather pattern heading into next weekend
and early next week, trying to break down the Rex Block and shifting
the ridge axis over the East Coast while also teeing up a more
robust series of mid and upper-level shortwave troughs in
association with a stalled stationary boundary somewhere across the
Upper Midwest. While this pattern would be more conducive to a
return of better rainfall chances and perhaps even some
thunderstorms, models tend to struggle with the speed of blocking
patterns breaking down, generally breaking them down too quickly.
Therefore, continue monitoring the forecast for late week/next
weekend as precipitation timing and potential is likely to change.
With that said, confidence is higher in temperatures remaining
above average for the remainder of the week, with a slight
cooling--but still 5-10F above normal in the mid 60s to 70s--
late next weekend depending on what side of the predicted
stationary front the Northland would fall on.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with high pressure
over the region. South to southwest winds with gusts to 15-20 kt
continue for northeastern Minnesota terminals through early
this evening before weakening tonight. Can`t rule out some LLWS
at INL/HIB later this evening and tonight due to the development
of a roughly 35 knot southwesterly low-level jet, but this
threat should drop off towards 29.07Z to 29.10Z. Winds remain
light out of the south to southeast into daytime Monday, though
onshore northeast winds off of Lake Superior towards late Monday
afternoon and evening could locally enhance winds at DLH.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
For nearshore areas north of Taconite Harbor, expect breezy
southwest winds this afternoon to around 25 knots, with these
stronger winds lingering near Grand Portage into the evening, as
well. Winds weaken overnight into early Monday afternoon.
However, an abrupt and significant reversal of conditions on
Monday afternoon into Monday night as a backdoor cold front
slides in from the northeast. A developing pressure gradient
will cause winds to rapidly switch to the northeast, with some
weather models suggesting gusts of 20-25 knots spreading down
the North Shore and across the head of the lake. Conditions are
expected to deteriorate very quickly, so mariners are urged to
take all necessary precautions to avoid being caught off guard
by this rapid change. Strong northeast wind gusts of 20-25 knots
persist into much of Tuesday as well for the North Shore and
southwest arm of Lake Superior and increase wave heights to 2-5
feet, likely causing hazardous conditions for smaller vessels.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ141.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion