Osprey, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

310
FXUS62 KTBW 220650
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
250 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Deeper moisture will begin to spread back north today and Tuesday
as an upper level shortwave moves across the peninsula. This will
increase rain chances with isolated convection far north to
numerous over the southern interior and southwest Florida during
each afternoon and evening.
During midweek a cold front will move into the eastern U.S.
suppressing the ridge axis south across the Florida peninsula
with the low level flow becoming rather light and eventually south
to southwest. Enough moisture will remain across the area to see
isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms, with the highest PoPs over the interior and inland
southwest Florida.
Late in the week an increasing southwesterly flow will setup as
the frontal boundary moves south. There will still be enough
moisture across the region for scattered to numerous convection
Friday and Saturday, with the highest chances over the interior
and eastern half of the Florida peninsula during each afternoon
and evening. However, with the southwest flow increasing coastal
areas could begin to see a few late night and morning showers and
thunderstorms.
The frontal boundary will move off to the south and east of the
area during Sunday with northwesterly flow setting up bringing
some drier air into the region. Still looks like enough moisture
will hold on for isolated to scattered convection, but mainly over
the interior and inland southwest Florida.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this morning, then
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon
and evening causing some MVFR/local IFR conditions. East to
northeast winds at 5 to 10 knots are forecast through the TAF
forecast period, except there should be a shift to northwest
during this afternoon and early evening at TPA, PIE, and SRQ, as
the sea breeze moves inland.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Northeast to east winds at 15 knots or less will continue over
the waters through midweek with winds turning onshore near the
coast as the sea breeze tries to develop each afternoon and
evening. Winds will shift to southwest to west late in the week as
a cool front approaches from the north. Moisture will increase
for the work week, leading to isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Moisture will return across the area early this week leading to
increased rain chances. Relative humidity values are expected to
remain above critical levels each day with winds less than 15 mph,
except gusty and erratic winds will be possible in the vicinity of
showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  77  92  77 /  20  20  40  10
FMY  91  75  91  75 /  60  30  60  20
GIF  93  75  93  74 /  40  20  60  10
SRQ  91  74  90  75 /  30  20  40  10
BKV  93  71  92  71 /  20  20  30  10
SPG  90  77  90  77 /  20  10  40  10
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
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