Pahokee, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

831
FXUS62 KMFL 212249
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
649 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Main change in the ongoing synoptic scenario is having a decaying
frontal boundary near the Bahamas backtracking into the state
through tomorrow. This boundary is dragging moisture from the
Atlantic into SoFlo today, with model and sounding PWATs now in
the 2 inch range. Meanwhile, model and synoptic analyses still
show high pressure lingering over the SE CONUS, but being
gradually weakened by a frontal feature establishing across the
SC/GA region. This will bring a slight shift in wind direction
over the area with mainly moderate ENE flow prevailing through
Monday.
The increased moisture will push POPs into the 50-60 percent this
afternoon and early evening, with even deeper moisture arriving on
Monday. Based on latest radar data, POPs/Wx grids for the rest of
this afternoon and evening have been updated to better reflect
the current trend of increasing shower coverage across the
Atlantic metro areas.
By Monday afternoon, max POPs reach the 70-80 percent range,
along with better chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms
to develop, steeper lapse rates, and daytime heating providing
enough lifting. Therefore, Monday since to be the busiest day of
the week in terms of active weather.
Despite the increased cloud cover and rain activity, temperatures
should remain warm with afternoon highs generally in the upper 80s
to lower 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1247 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Easterly to northeasterly flow will continue through the period with
deeper moisture gradually returning to the area. Coastal showers and
storms have persisted for the early portion of the night, and
these will likely begin again early this morning and continue into
the afternoon. Highest rain chances will remain across southern
portions of the area where deep layer moisture is maximized.
Additional chance for overnight and morning coastal showers and
isolated thunderstorms on Monday. As the day progresses and daytime
heating increases, showers and storms will develop over land and
push towards interior and southwest Florida through the evening
hours.
High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to low 90s with
overnight lows in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1247 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
An upper level trough near the Great Lakes is forecast to slowly
extend southward towards the southeastern US early next week. By mid
to late week, the trough transitions into a cutoff low across the
central US where it will slowly drift towards the Ohio and Tennessee
Valley areas. This could lead to a weak boundary stalled across
central Florida and potentially facilitate additional moisture
transport across South Florida through the week. PWATs will
remain in the 2.0- 2.2 inch range which is more typical for this
time of year. East- northeast flow will prevail across South
Florida through this time period which will give the east coast
breeze the upper hand in dominating convective initiation, and
will keep the area of maximum rain chances across interior and
Southwest Florida each afternoon. Partly sunny conditions prevail
during the morning hours with isolated coastal showers possible
across Southeast Florida. Thunderstorm development is expected
across interior areas during the each afternoon as sea breezes
push inland and we reach maximum daytime heating. Slightly drier
air might move into the region towards the end of the week as the
boundary has the potential to pass south of the area. This could
drop rain chances for Friday into the upcoming weekend.
High temperatures through the period will reach the lower 90s with
overnight lows in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VCSH or even VCTS may still develop near the terminals, although
conditions should trend towards VFR through the rest of the
evening. Winds are decreasing and should become L/V after 02-03Z.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms may result in
restrictions after 15Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1247 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A moderate east-northeasterly breeze will continue today. Seas
across the Atlantic waters will generally remain between 2 to 3 feet
while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 1 to 2 feet. Despite
lower rain chances this weekend, a few showers and storms may
develop across local waters. Periods of rough seas and gusty winds
will be possible near the most robust shower and thunderstorm
activity.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  89  78  90 /  40  80  40  60
West Kendall     77  89  76  90 /  40  80  40  70
Opa-Locka        77  90  77  90 /  40  80  40  60
Homestead        77  88  76  89 /  50  80  50  50
Fort Lauderdale  77  89  77  89 /  40  80  40  60
N Ft Lauderdale  78  89  78  90 /  40  80  40  60
Pembroke Pines   77  91  77  92 /  40  80  40  60
West Palm Beach  77  89  77  90 /  40  80  40  60
Boca Raton       77  89  77  90 /  40  80  40  60
Naples           77  90  76  90 /  20  70  40  60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GR
LONG TERM....GR
AVIATION...17

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion