Paulden, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

546
FXUS65 KFGZ 212315
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
415 PM MST Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
overnight and into Monday, before drying out Tuesday through about
Thursday. Unsettled weather will then return for the end of this
week and next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A sub-tropical moisture plume continues to feed into
Arizona as a weak upper low drops south along the SOCAL coastline.
The initial part of the plume is moving into a ridge and will not be
much of an impact into the evening. Tonight, hghts fall a bit as the
upper low consolidates and a jet streak approaches the area from the
northwest. This will allow for some dynamic forcing and moderate
instability to act on the core of the moisture plume.
We expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to become more focused
into a band of moderate to heavy rain later tonight and into Monday
morning, before decaying and moving southeast Monday afternoon. Some
rainfall amounts within this core may approach 2 inches and minor
flooding could be an issue.
Drier air and a pinched ridge then take over from Tuesday through
maybe Thursday, as Arizona sits in the middle of the offshore low
and a broad trough over the plains.
Finally, the offshore starts to move inland late next week and into
next weekend, potentially bringing all kinds of problems to Arizona.
This pattern could produce some severe weather and heavy rain. The
catch is, the movement of a cutoff low is hard to predict, we will
have to wait and see.
&&
.AVIATION...Monday 22/00Z through Tuesday 23/00Z...MVFR conditions
possible in SHRA/TSRA from 08Z to 22Z, mainly near a KPRC-KINW-KRQE
line. ISO pockets of +SHRA/+TSRA possible from 12Z to 18Z. VFR
conditions with ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA expected elsewhere. Winds VRB 5-
10 kts.
OUTLOOK...Tuesday 23/00Z through Thursday 25/00Z...VFR conditions.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA possible over the higher terrain each afternoon.
Winds NW-NE 5-10 kts on Tuesday, becoming E/NE on Wednesday. Locally
gusty NE winds downwind of the terrain Tuesday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Tuesday...Expect shower and
thunderstorm activity to slowly increase through this evening,
becoming more widespread late tonight and Monday. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are forecast for higher terrain areas on Tuesday
afternoon. Daytime winds from the southwest to west at 5 to 15 mph
on Monday, shifting to the north-northeast on Tuesday.
Wednesday through Friday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms
will persist, with the highest chances Thursday and Friday. Light
and variable winds Wednesday will becoming southwesterly 10 to 15
mph Thursday and Friday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion