Pellston, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

147
FXUS63 KAPX 241759
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
159 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showery at times into Thursday.
- Areas of dense fog are possible again tonight.
- Seasonably warm temperatures continue this weekend and beyond.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Current satellite imagery continues to show the picturesque upper
low spinning near the Straits as of ~05Z. Secondary short wave/upper
feature in Wisconsin is orbiting this parent trough closer to
home like the planets around the Sun (Sun being the trough near
the Straits). This "planet" will move east and northeast around
the orbit of the "Sun", which in and of itself will continue to
retrograde to the southwest through the day and drop even
farther south into tonight. Within the vicinity of the center of
this upper low/Sun will drive our showers through the short
term period.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Shower potential will revolve around the center of the upper low
pressure system today. Weak instability should limit the
thunderstorm threat for a majority of the area, with the "best"
instability near Saginaw Bay, degrading to the northwest. Thus, this
would be the most likely region for isolated thunderstorm
development, plus closer proximity to any other convection to
the south. Otherwise, expect isolated showers at times across
the rest of northern lower and eastern upper Michigan with minor
POPs and impacts. Little better signal, perhaps, for showers
and a rumble of thunder this evening as convection develops to
our southeast and any subsequent boundaries try to push
northwest. Seems like a decent signal in guidance at this time
but then again these features may be perturbed a little to the
south come 12-24 hours from now.
Another round of fog is certainly possible tonight as temperatures
cool to saturation and the pattern remains stagnant. Guidance is
hinting at this possibility as well (NBM probs, HRRR/HREF vis
guidance), and so areas of dense fog will yet again be a hazard
tonight into Thursday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Day 2-3 (Thursday - Friday):
Upper low continues to linger over northern MI on Thursday,
resulting in a few areas of isolated showers. Showery activity will
likely focus across the east to southeast portions of northern lower
due to the positioning of the upper low and subsequent lift. By the
latter portions of the day and into the overnight, this feature will
accelerate eastward, ending the precipitation, at least for most and
for the time being.
Cannot rule out a few light showers on Friday as a subtle short wave
moves within the broader mid level flow as hinted at by several
pieces of guidance. There is variation in whether this system
produces precipitation though. ENS probs for >0.01" of rain on
Friday exemplify this with the GEFS mostly dry and the EPS showing
good chances for light showers. Something we`ll have to monitor in
the coming days, but given the point soundings show dry and stable
mid to upper levels, this should not pose any significant impacts.
Days 4-7 (Saturday - Tuesday):
General theme for this weekend consists of building upper heights
and a disturbance passing mainly to the north across Ontario. Looks
like a warm end to the period during the early portions of next week
as upper ridge begins to really build across the Upper Midwest and
into portions of Canada. No significant precipitation concerns
through this period, with any cool/cold air locked way to the north
as indicated by the above normal Climate Prediction Center
temperature outlooks for northern MI (high temps well into the 70s).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Mainly MVFR ceiling heights are expected to continue today
before CIG`s begin to spread westward and lower to IFR and LIFR
levels. BR and FG is expected to develop overnight around 0600Z
through 1300Z Thursday morning withs VSBY`s dropping to LIFR
levels along with temporarily falling in and out of VLIFR
categories. P6SM visibilities will return Thursday morning with
low CIGs through the remainder of the forecast period.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...SJC

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion