Pender, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

315
FXUS63 KOAX 222336
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
636 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms tonight with a Slight Risk for severe storms.
  Primary hazards: large hail, damaging winds, locally heavy
  rainfall leading to flash flooding
- Showers and weak storms linger into Tuesday along and south of
  I-80 with cooler temperatures midweek
- Dry weather expected starting Wednesday through the end of the
  week with temperatures warming back into the low 80s by Friday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A weak upper-level wave is bringing light showers to the area,
primarily confined along the Platte River early this afternoon.
As we go into this evening, we are watching a more substantial
upper-level trough move out of the Rockies and approach the
area. Out ahead of this trough, we`ll see more substantial
height falls starting early this evening. Cloud cover this
afternoon will help to stave off earlier initiation of storms
this afternoon, but moderate cooling aloft and the approach of
the upper-level wave should generate enough instability and
provide the forcing for storm initiation starting around 6-7 PM.
While timing and location of storm initiation is uncertain due
to complexities with the wave moving through, severe storms do
appear on the table for this evening. Environmental shear in the
model soundings from the CAMs appears moderate with fairly good
veering with height in the lower levels of the hodograph. LCL
heights will be higher leading to a lower potential for
tornadoes, but if we can get storms to develop and latch on to
the boundary we could potentially get a tornado or two. SPC has
a 2% tornado risk for our area. The greater potential will be
for large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall.
Analogs for the soundings suggest potential for up to baseball-
size hail, but that window may be relatively short (through
around 9 PM) as once storms evolve from cellular to storm
clusters, max hail size will likely drop to quarters.
Another significant concern for tonight is potential for
training storms and heavy rainfall. WPC has our area under a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Believe there is a bit
better chance than just marginal as ensembles are showing a band
of 1-1.5 inches of rain along I-80 through the evening and
overnight hours. Ensembles typically are on the lower side of
rainfall amounts with these types of systems due to uncertainty
in placement of storms leading to smoothing out of higher
rainfall amounts. The HREF shows pockets of 30-40% chance of 2+
inches of rain along this band with LPMM values of 2-4 inches
along the band. This leads to a likely scenario for a band of
rain near I-80 of 1-3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts
around 4 inches possible. More urban areas will see a greater
potential for flash flooding with these rainfall amounts, as
more rural areas likely will be able to absorb amounts of 1-2
inches. Higher-end amounts could still cause problems in rural
areas.
Showers and storms will linger into Tuesday along and south of
I-80 as the upper-level trough drives the surface low south into
Kansas and Missouri. Severe chances will drop near zero as
instability and shear will be very limited on Tuesday. Areas
that see rain most of the day will only see highs get up into
the upper 60s Tuesday afternoon, while locations in northeast
Nebraska will likely warm into the low-to-mid 70s.
Wednesday an upper-levle ridge over the Rockies shifts eastward
into the Northern Plains. This should bring an end to rain
chances Wednesday morning and lead to a warming trend going into
the end of the week. Highs Thursday and Friday will get back up
around or above 80 degrees under mostly clear skies. Over the
weekend we see this ridge break down with the approach of a
second High moving in from the PacNW. This should keep us dry
and mild over the weekend as well.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
VFR conditions are observed for the start of the TAF cycle at
all terminals. Showers and storms are still expected for this
evening into the overnight hours, and with this update, timing
still remains a challenge but have refined expected arrival at
terminals according to latest guidance. Storms may become
severe, with large hail and damaging winds to 60 mph. Expect
amendments and adjustments to TAFs as we go through the
nighttime hours. Showers and storms will eventually clear out
from north to south throughout the day Tuesday, but will linger
the longest at KLNK. Ceilings will drop to MVFR across terminals
after 09z at KOFK, and after 14z at KOMA and KLNK. Brief
reductions to IFR remain possible at KOFK from 13 to 15z.
Winds will shift from south southeast to northeast overnight but
remain under 12kts outside of any strong storms throughout the
period.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion