Perry, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

813
FXUS64 KFWD 191725
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1225 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will continue into the middle of next
  week.
- Low rain chances will continue through the weekend, but will
  increase by the middle of next week with the approach of a
  stronger cold front.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Saturday Night/
Regional radar and satellite imagery shows a cluster of showers
and a few storms mainly along the Red River with some new
development across our eastern counties just south of I-20.
Satellite imagery shows a narrow band of percolating cumulus south
of I-20 tied to a remnant outflow boundary. Boundary layer
heating and weak ascent from a passing shortwave will continue to
aid in scattered storm development through the afternoon with the
bulk of the activity across our eastern counties. This is both
where the better moisture and lift will persist for the next
several hours. Outside of any convective areas, mostly sunny skies
will prevail with temperatures continuing to run several degrees
above normal.
This pattern will continue into Saturday with ridging to our
southwest and a modest northwest flow aloft across the Southern
Plains. While ridging is likely to prevail during the day
tomorrow, we`ll generally see less coverage of showers and storms.
By evening though, the center of the ridge axis will shift more to
the southwest allowing additional storms to develop off to our
northwest. We`ll have some low PoPs (20-40%) across our north and
northwest counties late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday through Thursday/
Scattered convection may be ongoing across parts of the area
Sunday morning, generally north of I-20, but this activity will
decrease in coverage through midday. We`ll have to keep an eye on
any outflow boundaries from this activity as redevelopment will be
possible Sunday afternoon/evening. Ridging will continue to be
positioned mainly to our southwest, and we`ll maintain a modest
northwest flow aloft with an 80 kt upper jet. While there will be
a general lack of focus for convective development through Monday,
the persistent forcing for ascent atop a a warm moist boundary
layer will support at least isolated convection through the first
part of the week. We`ll maintain low PoPs (20-30%) during this
time.
Amplification of a central CONUS trough should commence on Tuesday
and will help send a stronger cold front southward through the
Plains during this time. Right now it looks like the front should
slide south into our area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
and should be accompanied by a line of showers and thunderstorms.
We`ll have the highest PoPs during this time with coverage around
40-60%. Ahead of the front on Tuesday, temperatures will likely
climb into the mid 90s, but will fall back closer to normal by
Wednesday afternoon and continuing through the end of the week.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
VFR will prevail through the period outside of any convective
areas. An outflow boundary has pushed south of the major airports
this afternoon with any additional convection developing along
this boundary and remaining to our south. We`ll continue to
monitor any convective potential around Waco, but the best chances
should remain off to the east of there.
A light easterly wind will become more southerly through the
afternoon and evening.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  74  94  74  91 /  10   5   5  10  30
Waco                93  71  93  71  92 /  10   0   0   5  20
Paris               89  68  93  69  90 /  40   0   0  10  30
Denton              93  70  94  70  91 /  20   0   5  20  40
McKinney            92  70  93  71  91 /  20   0   5  10  30
Dallas              94  74  94  74  93 /  10   5   5  10  30
Terrell             92  69  93  70  90 /  20   5   0   5  30
Corsicana           93  71  93  72  92 /  20   0   0   5  20
Temple              92  68  92  70  92 /  10   0   0   0  20
Mineral Wells       95  68  95  69  94 /  10   0  10  20  30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion