Poole, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

504
FXUS63 KGID 160554
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1254 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet conditions continue on through tonight, and for most
  locations, the daytime hours on Tuesday look to be dry as
  well.
- Storm chances start moving into western areas late in the day
  Tuesday, with expanding/increasing chances during the evening
  and overnight hours. Mainly before midnight, there will be the
  potential for some storms to be strong-severe across NWrn
  portions of the forecast area.
- A messy upper level pattern will keep precipitation chances
  around in the forecast Wednesday on through the end of the
  week, but confidence in the finer timing/location details is
  not high. During the Tuesday night-Thursday night time frame,
  models suggest the potential is there for a wide spread 1-2
  inches of rain, mainly across our south central NE counties.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Currently through tonight...
Quiet conditions reign across the region this afternoon...with
satellite imagery plenty of sunshine. Upper air and satellite
data also showing generally west-southwesterly, weaker flow in
place across the Central Plains. The forecast area sits between
the blocked pattern over the eastern CONUS with high pressure
over the Great Lakes and low pressure over the SE coast, and
areas of low pressure spinning near the ND/Canada border and
over the ID/WY/MT border region. A surface trough axis remains
draped through the central Dakotas southward into the southern
High Plains...keeping our west southerly...but with an overall
weaker pattern, winds remain around 10 MPH here at mid-
afternoon. No big surprises as far as temperatures go...most
spots look to top out in the mid 80s. No notable changes to the
forecast for this evening and overnight, which remains dry.
Models show upper level troughing digging a bit further south
with time, as the center of low pushes further east into
northern WY. Expecting little in the way of cloud cover
overnight, and with winds remaining light, did drop lows a
touch, with upper 50s in the NW to lower 60s in the SE.
Tuesday and Tuesday night...
As we get into the daytime hours on Tuesday...main change the
forecast, an overall minor one, was to slow down the onset of
storm chances during the afternoon hours. Recent hi-res model
data are in pretty good agreement that the majority of the
forecast area (some say all) remains dry during the 12-00Z time
frame. Focus will be off to the west, where models show the main
upper level low pressure system and trough axis making little
eastward progress overall...with a lead vort max looking to
swing ENE into the area late in the day. At the surface, low
pressure is expected to deepen over eastern CO, with a trough
axis/cold front extending NEward through the Neb Sandhills into
central SD and a trough axis/dry ling south along the CO/KS
border. During the afternoon/peak-heating hours, though the
greater upper level lift is still working its way east, storms
are expected to develop along this boundary...more isolated the
further south you go.
With highs expected to climb into the mid-upper 80s and
dewpoints in the 60s...models show plenty of instability
developing across the area ahead of the activity out west, but
deeper layer shear is once again on the lower side of things. As
this complex of storms pushes into western portions of the
forecast area, there will be the potential for some storms to be
strong-severe, mainly through midnight, and the NW half of the
forecast area remains in the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area.
Models showing the coverage of storms potentially a little more
scattered with time overnight...but with the main upper low
continuing to move into the area, chances never totally drop
off.
Wednesday and on...
Looking at mid-week on through the weekend, models remain in
fairly decent agreement in terms of the big picture...but
there are plenty of uncertainties in the finer details. The main
upper level low pressure system is still working its east
mainly through WY during the day...eventually working its way
more onto the Plains. There are differences between models on
the exact location of the main upper low...complicated by the
fact there is at least one other vort max embedded/rotating
around. This looks to continue on even into Friday...with models
not showing this system making more of a push out of the area
until this weekend. Confidence in timing/location details of
high precipitation chances are not high...especially Wed night
on.
As far as precipitation amounts go...there is a the potential
for widespread amounts of 1-2 inches Tuesday night through
Thursday night, with ensemble probabilities highest across our
south central NE counties. At this point, ens probabilities and
deterministic models both not showing high potential for more
than isolated spots with higher totals than that...but we`ll see
how things trend in the coming days.
For temperatures...again confidence is not overly high, as how
precipitation ultimately ends up evolving could greatly impact
things...at this point highs Wed-Fri are mainly in the 70s (some
spots could struggle to get out of the 60s)...with more 80s
returning by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR and dry conditions expected for vast majority of this
period, though there will be increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms by around 03-06Z Wednesday. Fog appears unlikely
this morning, though some minor haze can`t be completely ruled
out. Will monitor obs/trends and adjust if necessary. Winds will
be light S-SE through late AM, then slightly higher for the
afternoon hours. Winds will back to the E late in the period,
then turn to the NW after 06Z behind a cold front. Showers and
mostly non-severe thunderstorms will probably be the rule late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Confidence: Medium.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Thies

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion