Poplar Branch, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

083
FXUS61 KAKQ 261743
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
143 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front lingers over the area through Saturday,
with an upper trough settling over the Southeast by the
weekend. This will bring more unsettled conditions through the
weekend. Impacts from any tropical development would be late Monday
through Tuesday night if they occur. However, uncertainity
remains high regarding this.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1035 AM EDT Friday...
Key Message:
-Additional showers and storms are possible later this afternoon
 into this evening bringing heavy rain and isolated Flash
 Flooding across SE VA/NE NC.
Upper ridging remains anchored off the SE CONUS coast late this
morning. Meanwhile, a southern stream trough is over the TN
Valley/Deep South with a northern stream shortwave passing by to
our north. At the surface, a weak cold front has moved into the
CWA and has stalled from south-central to eastern VA. Still
seeing low cloud cover across much of our VA zones and the
eastern shore, with partly cloudy skies (and temps already
around 80F) over far SE VA and NE NC. The overnight convection
finally moved offshore shortly after 7 AM, and we are dry at
this hour. The northern stream shortwave will pass by to our NE
later today/tonight while the upper trough to our WSW slowly
moves eastward toward the area.
Another round of aftn/evening showers/tstms is expected south
of the boundary later today, which should initially be confined
to far SE VA/NE NC (generally south of where the 1-3" of rain
fell last night). Storms likely initiate after 2 PM with
coverage peaking over our SE counties during the evening hours.
While severe wx isn`t expected, localized flash flooding is
possible in poor drainage and urban areas. The flow aloft
eventually becomes southerly over the area tonight, allowing for
additional deep moisture to move overhead. PW values across
southern VA/NE NC will climb to 2-2.2" by early Sat AM. This,
combined with the forcing from the approaching upper trough,
will allow for scattered to numerous showers (and perhaps a few
tstms) to overspread the area from S to N tonight. There are
some signs that NE NC may see a break in the precip tonight as
it focuses more across central/southern VA after 2 AM. Localized
totals of 1"+ are certainly possible with the round of showers
late tonight (but the heaviest rain will likely occur during the
day on Saturday). WPC has maintained a marginal ERO for the
southern half of the area for this afternoon through tonight.
Temperatures for today will not be as warm with highs in the low
to middle 80s and lows will drop into the middle to upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Another round of localized Flooding is possible Saturday
- Shower chances continue on Sunday with less in the way of thunder
chances.
Through Saturday the upper low will be just to the west but will
maintain southerly flow over our area. At the surface, the stalled
cold front will slowly push east but will stall out again over south
central amd SE VA/NE NC allowing for additional development of
showers and storms during the afternoon and evening of Saturday. PW
values will maintain themselves from Friday night and will continue
to be between 2 to 2.2" through the day. This environment will be
conducive of any strong shower and storm to produce heavy rain fall
that could potentially lead to localized Flash Flooding. Especially
for already saturated ares from the previous night. Latest 00z HREF
has shown a broad area of a 30% chance of 3 inches of rain within an
hour across south central and SE VA/ NE NC. WPC has upgraded to a
slight risk ERO for most of the area. Temperatures for Saturday will
cool down and be more pleasant with highs ranging from the lower 70s
across the NW to the lower 80s across the SE. Shower chances
continue Saturday night/Sunday as the closed low lingers just to our
W/SW. With the low-level increasing a little bit out of the NE,
expect it to be more stable on Sunday with less in the way of
thunder chances (but cloudy and showery throughout the day). Highs
only reach the mid-upper 70s with areal avg QPF of 0.25-0.5". WPC
once again has a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Risk for the entire
area on Sun.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- A unsettled pattern continues late this weekend into early next
  week.
- Tropical Storm Humberto is forecast to become a major  hurricane
well offshore and AL94 has a 80% chance of   development through 48
hours and 90% through 7 days.
Through early next week the upper closed low will continue to remain
over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. While to the north a decently
strong high pressure builds just SE of Quebec and Ontario. Further
complications arise from AL94 and TS Humberto (forecast to become a
major hurricane by late Sunday), how these systems interact with
each other, and how much the trough interacts with AL94. The recent
00z guidance continues to have a large spread in terms of both
track/intensity with respect to AL94, there is increasing confidence
that there will be some degree of tropical development off the SE
CONUS coast by Monday morning. If there are direct impacts, and if
they do occur, it would likely be from late Monday through late
Tuesday. Nevertheless, unsettled weather conditions and rain chances
will continue through early next week. Depending on the track of the
system, locally heavy rainfall is certainly possible across parts of
the area which could lead to flooding especially with the rain
already expected this weekend. By the middle of the week, high
pressure builds father south with fairly strong CAA expected. Breezy
NE winds are likely by Wed/Wed night as the gradient between the
high to our north and any low to our S/SW/SE increases. Also, drier
wx should finally return by Wed or Wed night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Friday...
VFR to occasionally MVFR CIGs prevail early this afternoon with
SCT-BKN cumulus. Mainly VFR through 03-09z. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible at ORF/ECG between 20-03z and have
maintained PROB30 groups to account for this. The chance of
thunder is low through late this evening at RIC/SBY/PHF. CIGs
drop to IFR (or low-end MVFR) early Sat AM as showers overspread
the area from south to north. Widespread showers are likely at
RIC throughout the day on Sat, with showers/tstms likely at the
coastal terminals during the aftn evening. Degraded flight
conditions will likely prevail through much of the day on
Saturday, though CIGs should rise to MVFR near the coast (but
could remain IFR throughout the day at RIC).
Precipitation decreases in coverage Sat night, but sub-VFR CIGs
likely linger across the terminals. A chc of showers lingers
into Sunday and Monday with sub-VFR conditions possible at
times.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Sub-SCA through the weekend, with scattered showers and storms
today and Saturday.
- Deteriorating boating conditions and building NE winds are likely
from for the first half of next week. Continue to monitor the
forecast and the latest information from the National Hurricane
Center regarding the progress of Humberto and Tropical Disturbance
94L.
Latest analysis reveals ~1000mb over northern New England into
Atlantic Canada, with high pressure to the west and northwest over
the Ohio Valley and mid-south and the upper midwest into central
Canada. The associated surface cold front is draped to the SSW and
is still pushing into the mid-Atlantic just west of the local
waters. Winds ahead of the front are mainly SSW 5-10 kt, with some
scattered showers and storms along and just behind the front. Seas
are 2-3 ft, waves ~1 ft.
The front slowly pushes toward the waters this morning, before
stalling over the rivers and bay this afternoon. Winds remain light
and variable ~5-10 kt today into tonight. Additional scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly this
afternoon and tonight along and ahead of the crossing frontal
boundary, though additional showers and storms are also expected
over the weekend in association with this weakening front. High
pressure centered north of the region ridges into the local
area late tomorrow into the weekend, and will nudge the front
just offshore Saturday afternoon and Sat night, though the
weakening front/coastal trough lingers there along/just off the
coastal Carolinas through the weekend. Winds veer from the E-NE
on Saturday (5-10 kt) to the S-SW Sat night and early Sunday,
becoming NNE as the front settles offshore on Sunday and Sun
night, increasing to 10-15 kt Sun aftn/night into Monday.
Unsettled marine conditions are likely from early-mid next week.
Previously referenced Canadian high pressure continues to slowly
build SE from the Great Lakes through midweek. Meanwhile, Tropical
Cyclone Humberto remains out in the central Atlantic Basin, and
Invest (Tropical Disturbance) 94L over Hispaniola is expected to
organize into a tropical cyclone later today while crossing the
southeast Bahamas late today into Saturday. 00z EC/CMC are a bit
slower with the progress of 94L. This opens up at least the
possibility of the system interacting with what will then likely be
Hurricane Humberto over the weekend. This could serve to pull 94L
farther offshore, as it lifts farther out into the Atlantic
into early next week. However, the other camp lead by the 00z
GFS still shows the system getting absorbed into the east coast
upper low, with a subsequent landfall somewhere along the
Coastal Carolinas. Take home point at this time is that there
remains little confidence with a track or intensity regarding
94L, and therefore latching onto any one solutions is not a
great idea at this time range.
What we can say is that while we await emerging model consensus,
marine interests should keep a close eye to the forecast over
the upcoming weekend, as well as the latest track from the NHC
regarding Humberto and 94L. The wind forecast is still obviously
dependent on the progress of these systems. Regardless of the
exact track though, elevated NE winds look increasingly likely
Monday afternoon through at least midweek. The pressure gradient
quickly tightens between previously referenced strong Canadian
high pressure building south and 94L meandering somewhere along
the southeast coast and Humberto looming farther out into the
Atlantic. SCA winds are likely Monday and Monday night, with
higher winds then possible Tue-Wed. Seas also quickly ramp up
during this period, with strong E-SE swell ramping seas upwards
of 6-10 ft Tue night and Wednesday.
Rip Risk is low today and through this weekend, though it will
likely ramp back up to high risk for much of next week as that
swell from both Humberto and 94L lift up into the region.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ERI/HET
NEAR TERM...ERI/HET
SHORT TERM...ERI/HET
LONG TERM...ERI/HET
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AC/MAM

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion