Poth, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

536
FXUS64 KEWX 161046
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
546 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures through the week.
- Low rain chances return for the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
An upper level ridge is over Texas this morning with weak
northwesterly flow. High pressure in the lower levels is
producing weak southeasterly winds. The airmass over South-
Central Texas is warm and moist with temperatures in the 70s and
dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s. The upper ridge will
remain dominant in the short term. This will continue to
suppress convection keeping the weather dry today and Wednesday.
Light southeasterly winds will reinforce the low level airmass.
High temperatures will continue to be above normal, and similar
to the last couple of days, today and Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
Thursday a surge of moist air up the Rio Grande may generate
isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Thursday night an upper trough will move into the plains and
start to erode the ridge over the south. This trough will move
slowly through the middle of the country pushing the ridge to
the south. There may be enough lift to generate showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon Friday through Sunday. Sunday night
into Monday models are hinting at a cold front possibly moving
through our CWA, but have not been consistent from run to run.
Despite these differences the blended solution shows chances for
showers and thunderstorms with a peak during Monday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
VFR flying conditions prevail today through Wednesday with FEW
MVFR level clouds late night into morning hours. Cannot rule out
an ISOLD afternoon SHRA, though PROBs are too low regarding
impacts to the sites to mention. S to SE winds of 7 to 14 KTs
prevail with light and VRBL overnight into early morning hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  95  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  95  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  95  69  95 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            68  90  69  90 /   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  93  73  93 /   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             68  93  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  95  69  95 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   68  94  69  94 /   0  10   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  93  71  94 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           71  95  72  96 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...04

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion