Preston, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

632
FXUS64 KJAN 261440 AAB
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
940 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather will continue over the upcoming week. There will be
   cooler mornings through this weekend, with daytime temperatures
   on an upward trend into next week.
&&
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Patchy dense fog which developed around daybreak this morning has
mostly transitioned to a low stratus deck, with visibilities 3 SM
or higher now at all local ASOS/AWOS. However, this stratus deck
which extends from around Brookhaven through Meridian and the
Golden Triangle has been slower to diminish and may hang around in
some areas into the early afternoon. Forecast sky cover has been
adjusted accordingly, and high temps were nudged down a degree or
two in some of the affected areas as well. Otherwise, a mid/upper
low is pivoting across the TN Valley today. This might kick off a
few showers across parts of east MS this afternoon but only in
areas that clear out enough to destabilize. For now, we are
carrying minimal PoPs with no mention in weather grids, but we
will monitor through the day to potentially add some isolated
shower mention in our eastern area. /DL/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Through Sunday: Dry weather and slightly cooler than normal
temperatures are expected. Early morning surface analysis had a
stalled cold front nearly along the Gulf coast and a 1015mb high
centered over the southern Plains. This surface high will weaken as
it shifts to the northeast through Saturday but then strengthen
Sunday as it remains centered northeast of our region. This will
provide a northerly flow through the period and keep the Gulf closed
for us. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the
circulation around a positively tilted upper level trough, the axis
of which extended from the eastern Great Lakes region back across
our CWA and over eastern Texas. The northern portion of the upper
level trough will lift out to the northeast while the middle portion
closes off a low over northern Alabama and the Tennessee valley. A
few models generate some light precipitation this afternoon over our
northeast most zones but consensus is dry for our CWA. The closed
low will shift east through Sunday helping to maintain dry weather
over our CWA. With a drier airmass over our CWA, radiational cooling
is expected to lead to morning lows dropping into the 50s across the
northern half of the CWA Saturday and Sunday mornings. Afternoon
highs will top out closer to normal Saturday and a couple degrees
warmer Sunday. Some of the guidance showed probabilities for patchy
dense fog across the central portions of the area this morning.
Patchy fog has started developing in spots across the CWA but
confidence remains low in dense fog development. /22/
The pattern at least gets a little more interesting into the middle
of next week, though. The Southwest low will become absorbed in a
deepening trough off the West Coast, and the central CONUS ridge
will amplify in response. Models generally agree that the
Southeastern U.S. low will cut off and spin over the southern
Appalachians. A tropical disturbance with a High (90%) chance of
development in the next few days will be steered northwest toward
this broad low pressure system  by early to mid next week. Any
impacts won`t be felt across our forecast area, but the pattern
should lock in the low pressure to our east through the end of this
7-day forecast. It appears more likely that we will be under the
influence of drier flow, but some wrap around moisture producing
rain by Wednesday or Thursday cannot entirely be ruled out. Pattern
will generally keep temps near normal late September and early
October. /NF/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Varying conditions of vsbys and cigs are expected until after 14Z
when conditions wl improve to VFR areawide. VFR conditions later
this morning wl prevail through the end of the TAF period. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       82  62  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      84  62  86  61 /  10   0   0   0
Vicksburg     84  60  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   86  64  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       81  60  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    84  58  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     84  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
DL/22/NF

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion