Prospect Cemetery, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

637
FXUS62 KILM 031025
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
625 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered north of the area will bring a breezy
but largely seasonable period for the remainder of the work-
week and upcoming weekend. Daytime highs may climb into the 80s
both days this weekend. Only minor rain chances return during
next week as moisture tries to overrun this high from the south
while a cold front approaches from the NW by mid-week next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mostly decent weather conditions are expected through tonight
thanks to persistent high pressure ridging into the Carolinas.
The center of the high will drift toward the Mid-Atlantic region
through tonight. Time-height cross sections show limited
moisture, generally around H85, but very dry air in the
mid/upper levels. Most of the low-level convergence associated
with a weak coastal trough will linger off the coast with some
widely scattered shower activity. The low-level flow may veer
enough to get some of these showers closer to the coast during
this afternoon and evening. Given the moisture limitations will
hold off on PoPs for now across land areas. Lows tonight should
be just above climatology.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
This period will feature ridging aloft, just north of the FA,
extending from the SE (offshore from HAT) to the NW (Eastern
Great Lakes). Sfc high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic
States initially, will drift off the Coast and across the
offshore Atlantic Waters by the end of this period. The sfc
ridge axis will continue to extend across the Carolinas thruout
this period. Subtle changes will occur as a result, including
onshore NE-E flow initially will veer slightly to the E-SE. This
should increase the sfc depth of the moist layer, initially up
to 850 mb, to 700mb. Of note, periodic onshore movement of weak
inverted sfc trofs that may produce isolated showers especially
across the ILM SC CWA, let alone bouts of clouds. Still quite
dry above this moist layer which will continue to limit vertical
extent of the cu fields. Temps thru this period, initially near
normal will run above normal by the end of this period. Daytime
highs in the 80s can be expected with night time lows in the
60s to around 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper and sfc ridging domination to continue thru Tue with
onshore flow deep enough to warrant an isolated Pop, especially
across the ILM SC CWA where sfc based moisture slightly deeper
encountering the periodic onshore movement of inverted sfc
trofs. For Tue thru Thu, The upper ridging suppresses southward
and ridging from the sfc high is cut off as the center pushes
further offshore and away from the FA. This in response to an
expanding upper trof to the south and east out of Central
Canada. This will drive a sfc cold front SE-ward reaching the FA
by midweek next week. Its accompanying moisture will scour out
some after crossing the Appalachians but nevertheless enough to
advertise low chance POPs given the sfc based moisture in place.
Above normal temps Mon-Wed dropping back to near normal Thu.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
high pressure located north of the area will ridge southward
across the Carolinas with mainly VFR conditions expected
through tonight. As the low-level flow veers then expect
moisture to spread onshore with some strato-cu/cu which could be
broken at times, especially at the coastal terminals. Most
shower activity should remain off the coast but could see
isolated showers move onshore this afternoon and evening given
the proximity of a weak coastal trough.
Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to prevail. May have
some patchy fog over the weekend and into early next week. Some rain
chances return by early next week, and primarily for those terminals
in northeast SC.
&&
.MARINE...
Through tonight...High pressure will drift across the Mid-Atlantic
waters during the day and the NEly pressure gradient will weaken
some during the day and tonight. Seas will remain above Small
Craft thresholds from a combination of the higher frequency
waves from the NEly fetch and the old Imelda swells. Widely
scattered showers are possible across the outer coastal waters
for the most part, but as steering veers a few could make it
across the remaining waters this afternoon and evening.
Saturday through Tuesday...SCA expanded and to remain in place
into Mon. Borderline SCA NE-E winds initially do abate-some
across the local waters especially going into next week.
However, seas will be the driving force behind the SCA.
Initially, the degrading tropical swell will become just a
memory early this weekend. The main input to seas will be the
long fetch that will exist for these NE-E winds to enact on.
Seas will run 4 to 7 ft with swell directions veering from the
NE to the E-ESE by the end of this period. Swell Periods will
climb to 8-10+ seconds due to this lengthy fetch which this
tightened sfc pg and resulting strong winds reside across. In
general, seas and winds may actually run hier across the ILM SC
waters when compared to the ILM NC Waters Sat thru Mon.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: High rip risk in place for Pender, New
Hanover and Georgetown county beaches where the ENE-E 6+ second
period wind waves will "pile up". A noticeable but small 11-13
second period easterly swell to continue today, also aiding the
rip current potential. Strong longshore currents can be
expected, generally in a north to south direction. The
exception will be Brunswick County beaches where a moderate to
possibly strong east to west longshore current will reside.
Coastal Flooding - Water levels will be close to minor coastal
flooding thresholds for each evening high tide for the lower
Cape Fear River, including downtown ILM, today and Saturday.
Similarly, water levels will be close to minor coastal flood
thresholds at the beaches each late afternoon high tide today
and Saturday. At this time, given it is a marginal event and
there will be additional tidal data available during the day do
not plan on issuing a Coastal Flood Advisory.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ056.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...DCH/SRP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion