Pyote, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

895
FXUS64 KMAF 121702
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1202 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1201 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
- This weekend will feature near normal temperatures and low to
  moderate (20-60%) rain chances. Best (40-60%) rain chances will
  be over southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain in West
  Texas Saturday afternoon and evening.
- Near normal temperatures remain through the middle of next
  week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 106 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
High pressure remains over central Texas this morning with an
upper level low near the Great Basin in the western U.S. The high
over Texas will exert a greater influence over our weather today keeping
temps unseasonably warm with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Moisture circulating around the high should remain west of the CWA
and any rain showers should be west of the Guadalupe Mountains.
The low to the west moves east tomorrow, increasing moisture in
the western half of the forecast area and increasing rain chances
significantly (30-60%) for southeastern New Mexico south to the
Big Bend.
Hennig
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 106 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
The upper low moves into the central Great Plains Saturday night
while weakening and moving away to the northeast. This pushes the
convection into the northwestern Permian Basin, though coverage
diminishes as the supporting upper dynamics get further away from
the area. A very broad and flat ridge then moves into West Texas
Sunday behind the departing trough. The weak ridge allows for mid
and upper level moisture to remain and there will be a slight
chance for showers and storms. Any activity should be high based
and accumulations would be light if any.
Upper moisture remains Monday and there may be enough instability
in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River for isolated
showers to develop. Other areas farther east should see an
afternoon altocumulus field develop. This scenario should repeat
each day next week with weak high pressure preventing showers from
developing but allowing for scattered afternoon clouds.
Temperatures should remain near to slightly above normal with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Hennig
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
VFR conditions expected through 12Z-14Z Saturday. Southeast winds
forecast at all terminals, becoming gusty at or above 15-20 knots
by 19Z-23Z Friday, then decreasing below 15 knots by 06Z-09Z
Saturday. Winds again forecast to increase and become gusty at or
above 15-20 knots 14Z Saturday into end of period, with low to
medium probability of showers/storms developing for terminals
across SE NM plains and Upper Trans Pecos 12Z-14Z into end of
period. MVFR or lower CIGs and VIS in regions of heavier
precipitation for terminals across SE NM plains and Upper Trans
Pecos after 12Z-14Z Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               67  91  69  88 /   0  10  20  20
Carlsbad                 67  86  65  89 /  10  60  50  20
Dryden                   70  91  71  91 /   0  10  10  20
Fort Stockton            68  89  68  90 /   0  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass           64  79  62  81 /  10  60  50  20
Hobbs                    64  84  64  86 /   0  50  50  20
Marfa                    59  81  59  83 /  10  40  30  40
Midland Intl Airport     68  90  70  89 /   0  10  20  20
Odessa                   68  88  69  88 /   0  20  30  20
Wink                     68  88  68  90 /   0  40  40  20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...94

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion