Randolph, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

450
FXUS63 KMKX 251443 AAA
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
943 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog in river valleys and other low lying areas possible
  again tonight.
- Above normal temperatures return late week into the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued 943 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The areas of dense fog (mainly shallow) and also low clouds
over central WI will continue to dissipate through late morning.
Expect mostly sunny skies with light northwest winds today, and
highs in the lower to mid 70s.
Cronce
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 348 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Today through Friday:
Areas of lingering low clouds mainly east of Madison early this
morning should gradually improve by mid-morning, as low
pressure pulls away to the east. Patchy fog in river valleys
and other low lying areas is expected through early this
morning, with improvement after sunrise. Could see a similar
round of fog tonight into early Friday under high pressure.
Temperatures will be a little milder today than yesterday,
given more sunshine expected and warmer temps aloft. Temps will
warm even more tomorrow ahead of a frontal boundary dropping
towards the area from the north. It does look like the front
will make it into at least the northern forecast area by the
evening hours, likely stalling somewhere between I-94 and the
WI/IL border tomorrow night. Clouds will likely increase as the
front moves into the area, but no precipitation is currently
expected given a lot of dry air above about 5 kft.
DDV
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 348 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Saturday through Wednesday:
500 mb cluster analysis remains in decent agreement with showing
an anomalous 500 mb ridge axis gradually developing over the Great
Lakes and eastern Canada during this period. This will generally
help steer weather systems to the north of the area during most
of this period.
There is a dry surface trough that should move east toward the
area and washes out later Saturday or Saturday night, with high
pressure slowly pushing east into the region Sunday. This high
should then strengthen to the northeast into next week. Ensembles
continue to suggest a fairly dry period of weather as a result
across the area.
The building 500 mb ridge should also allow for gradual warm air
advection to occur, which should result in above normal
temperatures this weekend into most of next week. Highs should
reach into the lower 80s, perhaps a little higher, for most of
the area this weekend into early portions of next week. There may
be an increasing easterly component to the winds by the middle to
latter portions of next week, which may bring 70s in eastern
parts of the area.
This is supported by the NBM temperature spreads being relatively
small, with ensembles also favoring these warm temperatures. For
reference, normal highs for the September 27 to October 4 period
are generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with normal lows in
the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Wood
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 943 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
A large area of VLIFR ceilings with shallow, dense fog is
lingering over central WI and this will gradually dissipate
through late morning. MVFR ceilings over eastern WI are also
breaking up and diminishing. Areas of fog in similar areas is
possible again tonight into early Friday under high pressure.
North to northeast winds generally 10 knots or less today will
become west to southwest 5 knots or less tonight.
Cronce
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 943 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Gusty northerly winds will gradually ease and become northwest
today as low pressure around 29.8 inches over the Ohio River
Valley continues eastward. Areas of fog over the northern third
will linger through at least late morning. Westerly winds are
expected tonight as high pressure around 30.0 inches slides across
Illinois.
A frontal boundary associated with a surface trough of around
29.8 inches will then drop through Lake Michigan from the north on
Friday, with winds becoming northerly across at least the
northern two- thirds of the lake. Light southerly winds will
prevail on Saturday as the weak high departs and a low pressure
trough around 29.8 inches crosses Manitoba and Ontario. High
pressure around 30.1 inches will set up over the Upper Great Lakes
Sunday and Monday.
Cronce
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion