Recluse, Wyoming Weather Forecast Discussion

959
FXUS63 KUNR 190717
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
117 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Dry and warmer this weekend
-Rain chances return early next week
-Growing uncertainty in forecast details much of next week given
 tendencies for a blocking pattern with a wandering upper low
&&
.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Thursday)
Issued at 115 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Mean trough over the Northern Plains will continue to slowly
shift east today, allowing for warmer and dry weather for the
weekend. Backside impulse and associated potent jet streak
continues to graze the southwest third of the FA with scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms there. This activity will
quickly shift southeast out of the FA this morning. Low clouds and
fog expected to develop this morning across much of western SD,
with patchy dense fog possible along the eastern slopes of the
Black Hills into NW SD. Skies are expected to clear west to east
later today, with portions of the SD Plains toward central SD
expected to see clouds most of the day. This will allow for a
gradient of temps across the FA, with 70s for highs in the west to
around 60 far east. Dry air will advect into the region tonight
aloft. However, light winds, clear skies, and lingering low level
moisture will support fog on the SD Plains. Added a mention to the
forecast. Much warmer this weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s
under mostly sunny skies. Deep upper trough in the northeast Pac
will split this weekend with a frontside impulse traversing the
northern Rockies. This system will support a cold front into the
region Monday, with breezy northwest winds expected. Forecast
models close this low off while offering a blocking ridge over the
western CONUS. This sets the stage for poor model performance.
Hence, low confidence in forecast details beyond Monday,
particularly precip chances. The latest runs suggest keeping the
low over/near the region through Tues, with rain chances in that
period, the solution the NBM has offered. However, this will
likely change as the pattern evolves. The Rockies ridge will
eventually shift east later in the week, supporting warmer temps
into the region when it does.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued At 1111 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Light rain with MVFR/IFR CIGS will linger into early Friday
morning. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible overnight as low
clouds/fog develop across NE WY and the far western SD plains, but
this should dissipate by ~15z. An area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms have developed across NE WY and continue ESE through
the central/southern Black Hills into SW SD through 12z.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...13

NWS UNR Office Area Forecast Discussion