Red Oak, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

256
FXUS62 KRAH 160622
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
222 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will drift into the Tidewater region of NC and VA
today, then linger while weakening, through mid-week. Canadian high
pressure will otherwise extend across the eastern US.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Monday...
* Flood Watch hoisted for the far NE Piedmont and northern Coastal
  Plain starting tonight
* Heavy rainfall threat develops overnight tonight into early Tue
Latest satellite imagery reveals the offshore low churning southeast
of the NC coast. Model agreement has come into better alignment with
the 12z guidance, specifically with the track of the low. The HRRR
was somewhat of an eastern outlier with the track, but has come in
better agreement. The consensus takes the low to the WNW into far
eastern or northeastern sections of NC by Tue morning. The upper-
low, presently off the NC/SC coast, will track northwest into
central NC by tomorrow morning. The upper-low will strengthen
overnight, aided by strong upper-level divergence over east and
northeastern NC, tied to a RRQ of a jet streak near New England.
Height falls will reach or exceed 20 dm. In addition to that, the
low-level flow, specifically at 850mb, shows anomalous moist onshore
flow driving intense moisture confluence into the northeast Piedmont
and northern Coastal Plain.
The combination of the upper and lower-level forcing appear to
maximize between late tonight and early Tue morning over the Flood
Watch area of the northeast Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. The
heaviest rainfall is likely to fall along an axis of strong
frontogenetical forcing to the northwest of the low, in an area
closely aligned with the 12z HREF footprint. That footprint shows a
half to 1 inch over the Triangle, to 2 to 4 inches over the northern
Coastal Plain by Tue morning. However, given some elevated
instability upwards of 500 J/kg supporting storm potential,
localized amounts of 4 to 6 inches are not out of the realm of
possibility in the far NE sections of central NC, per HREF/HRRR
solutions. Little if any rainfall will be felt by tomorrow morning
over the western/southern Piedmont and Sandhills. Lows tonight to
range from the upper 50s to low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 AM Tuesday...
As the upper level low shifts off to the NE, the surface low will
follow. On  Wednesday morning expect portions of the northeast
Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain to have lingering showers
through at least the afternoon as the surface low moves off the
VA/NC coast. By the evening hours, the center of the low, along with
the bulk of the precipitation is expected to be out of NC and mainly
across eastern VA. QPF for Wednesday (8am onward) in the NE will
range from a few hundredths to a few tenths. NW winds of 5-10 mph
will be persistent through the day, with occasional gusts of 15 to
20mph especially across the far northwestern counties. Temperatures
will be well below average with a large temperature gradient with
upper 60s in the far NE and upper 70s to near 80 in the far SE. Lows
will range from upper 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 AM Tuesday...
Upper level trough will linger over the Mid-Atlantic region through
the rest of the work week before a weak ridge moves across the OH
valley over the weekend. By Tuesday models are in agreement that
another deepening trough will move across the MS valley and into the
Mid-Atlantic region by mid week. Dry weather is expected Thursday
through Saturday. Precipitation chances increase Sunday afternoon
ahead of a frontal boundary. Sunday afternoon rain chances remain
low, 15-25 percent, with lingering chances through Monday afternoon.
As the frontal boundary inches closer, cant rule out isolated
showers/storms Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Temperatures will
be near normal with Friday being the warmest day in the mid to upper
80s. Over the weekend expects temps in the low to mid 60s. With
increased rain chances next week temperature will range from upper
70s to low 80s. Lows through much of the long term period will be in
the low to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 AM Tuesday...
The main forecast change with the 06Z TAF issuance was to delay the
arrival of flight restrictions and rain at all sites, as low pressure
centered 50-75 miles east of KHSE has yet to turn nwwd; and the
trend in model guidance has been to keep the low farther east than
previous forecasts. Nly winds will increase and peak between 10-15
kts sustained, with occasional gusts into the upr teens to mid 20s
kts - most likely and strongest at RWI. Flight restrictions and
occasional rain or drizzle, once they develop, will linger overnight-
Wed morning.
Outlook: Low cloud cover will likely linger through Wednesday night,
with improving conditions Thursday into the weekend.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 11 PM EDT this evening through late Tuesday night
for NCZ009>011-026>028-043.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...MWS/Leins

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion