Redcrest, California Weather Forecast Discussion

010
FXUS66 KEKA 010837 CCA
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Eureka CA
137 AM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A frontal passage will continue to generate rainshowers
on Wednesday, and potentially Thursday, before giving way to dry
weather on Friday and hold through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The cold frontal passage yesterday brought strong
winds and some wetting rain to most of the forecast area. The
synoptic scale, upper level trough and cooler air will linger over
NW California behind the front today. Shallow atmospheric
instability mixed with onshore westerly flow will likely result in
continued shower activity into Wed night with additional rain
totals around 0.10" for the North Coast and up to 0.25" in
southern Mendocino & Lake counties. On Thursday, the upper trough
will begin to migrate after sitting off the coast of British
Columbia leading to a decrease in overall rainfall. However,
remaining moisture and daytime heating could produce some
rainshowers in the interior, specifically Trinity. However, model
soundings show unfavorable lapse rates for storms.
Friday, through the weekend, and into early next week dry weather is
expected to return. Strong high pressure builds over the eastern
Pacific. The forecast uncertainty lies in the trajectory of this
upper level low. It also looks like there will be some weather
systems moving down the east side of the ridge in an inside slider
pattern. This may create offshore flow bringing clear skies and dry
conditions, especially for coastal areas. These clear and dry
conditions will also bring the potential for frost or freezing
temperatures in the valleys. This will be highly dependent on how
much drying there is, but it is starting to look like we will see
frost at least in the colder areas in the interior.
&&
.AVIATION...06z TAF...Post frontal conditions have kept aviation
conditions variable all across the area. COnditions have so far
mostly remained VFR with only brief MVFR periods in passing showers.
Earlier strong wind shear has now died down and will continue to
decrease through early Wednesday.
As winds continue to decrease and rain activity lessens, ceilings
will most likely lower by sunrise, with IFR conditions most likely
along the coast. That said, there is wide model disagreement with
with ceilings heights possible anywhere between 500 and 2500 feet by
mid morning. Recent rain has also helped produce IFR ceiling in many
interior valleys overnight. Any IFR ceilings will most likely
gradually lift through the day Wednesday, but true scattering to
VFR remains unlikely (30% chance).
&&
.MARINE...A cold front has generally exited the waters late Tuesday
with only few lingering gusts over 20 kts. Steep short period seas
will quickly fall early Wednesday morning. This will lead to a short
calm period during the morning hours, especially for the southern
waters. By early Wednesday afternoon, however, a mid period swell
will quickly build over 12 feet and return steep sea conditions to
all waters. Otherwise, winds will be mostly gentle Wednesday.
Just in time for the swell to decay on Thursday, moderate, northerly
winds will build across the area, especially in the southern waters
where near gale force conditions are most likely just downwind of
Cape Mendocino. Strong northerly winds will spread northward late on
Friday with steep short period seas inn all waters headed into the
weekend. /JHW
&&
.BEACH HAZARD...A steep, mid period northwest swell may bring
some hazardous conditions to area beaches during the day Wednesday
and Thursday. While the swell will only be around 14 feet at 14
seconds (producing a beach run up no more than about 18 feet), this
will be one of the first swells of the season. This means most areas
beaches have a steeper grade that has formed over the summer, which
may make waves especially dangerous and unexpected. Take extra care
if on local beaches this week. /JHW
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ101-
     102-104>106.
Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM PDT this morning through
     Thursday afternoon for CAZ101-103-104.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ450-470.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT early this morning for
     PZZ455-475.
&&
$$
NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.
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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

NWS EKA Office Area Forecast Discussion