Reeseville, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

730
FXUS63 KMKX 071440
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
940 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures continue today and tonight. High
  temperatures slowly warm back up, approaching seasonal normal
  values towards the middle of the week and perhaps above normal
  values by the end of the week.
- There are chances (20 to 30 percent) for showers Monday night
  through Tuesday night, mainly towards central Wisconsin, with
  lower chances (under 20 percent) towards southeastern
  Wisconsin.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued 940 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
The shortwave trough over srn WI will track to the Mid Atlantic
States by this evening. AVA and 500 mb height rises around 100m
are expected into this afternoon, but enough cool air aloft may
still result in brief periods of broken cloud cover this
afternoon. At the surface, high pressure over ern IA will slowly
move into nrn IL and far srn WI into this evening, while a lake
breeze is expected to develop over far ern WI. High temps in the
middle 60s still looks good for today.
The surface ridge will then slowly move across srn WI tnt with
another cool night expected. Some valley fog over south central
is forecast but even more sparse over se WI. The high pressure
area will then shift to the Lower Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic
States by Mon afternoon with sly winds and low to mid level warm
advection developing for srn WI. Some cloud cover may develop
with the warm advection mainly north and west of Madison, but
overall sunshine and temps returning into the 70s is forecast.
Gehring
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 328 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Today through Monday:
The surface inversion with clear skies and cool temperatures may
allow for patchy dense fog in the Wisconsin River Valley into
early this morning, and again later tonight into early Monday
morning. May see light fog in low lying areas as well.
High pressure will shift southeast from the eastern Dakotas to
northern Illinois today, then to the east tonight into Monday.
This will bring a period of dry conditions to the area.
Scattered diurnal stratocumulus clouds are expected each
afternoon.
Cool/below normal temperatures will remain today and tonight,
with highs today in the middle 60s and lows tonight in the lower
40s inland. There may be some upper 30s in low lying areas as
well. Highs should rise into the lower 70s on Monday, as weak
warm air advection starts to develop over the region. There may
be a southeast lake breeze Monday afternoon near Lake Michigan.
Wood
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 328 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Monday night through Saturday:
A closed upper level low approaching the West Coast will assist
with building strong ridging across the Intermountain West and
its propagation eastward into the Upper Midwest going into
Tuesday. Expect weak lift across the region as troughing exits,
reflected in a diffuse surface low pressure system propagating
eastward through the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday
night.
This will allow for a few periods of precipitation chances
(20 to 30 percent chances) during this time frame, with the
better chances towards central Wisconsin and lower to the
southeast. Steady southwesterly winds are expected as well,
bringing in a return to warmer temperatures into the middle to
upper 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.
By Wednesday morning, expect remaining broad low pressure to
exit, as upper level ridging builds overhead. Current modeling
indicates Wisconsin will remain on the eastern edge of the
ridging through the end of the work week.
This may lead to additional weak shortwaves bringing additional
periods of precipitation, though for now will leave the
forecast dry until more confidence is reached. This will also
allow for temperatures to remain in the 70s to near 80 degrees
through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
MH
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 940 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions will prevail today through Monday with the
exception of fog in the WI River Valley along the Sauk and Iowa
County border, and other low lying areas of south central WI
from 09-14Z Mon. Sct-bkn050-060 cumulus and stratocumulus for this
afternoon over srn WI.
Gehring
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 328 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
High pressure around 30.3 inches will move from the eastern
Dakotas to northern Illinois today. The high will bring modest
northwest winds, which will weaken later today into tonight. In
addition, some showers and a few thunderstorms may occur over
the northern and eastern portions of the open waters today, with
a few waterspouts possible.
The high will gradually move to the east of the region tonight
into Monday. Southwest to south winds will increase over the
lake Monday into Tuesday, as a frontal boundary stalls from the
Upper Peninsula of Michigan southwest into the Central Plains. A
Small Craft Advisory may be needed north of Port Washington for
Monday evening into Tuesday, for the gusty winds and building
waves.
High pressure around 30.3 inches well northeast of the region
later in the week should bring northeast to east winds.
Wood
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion