Richardsville, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

597
FXUS61 KLWX 250700
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
300 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure and it`s associated cold front will bring
widespread showers and a few strong thunderstorms to the region
today. The front pushes east of the region late tonight into Friday
before stalling southeast of the area this weekend. This will lead
to continued shower and thunderstorm chances throughout the weekend,
especially south of Washington DC. High pressure over eastern Canada
builds south early next week while a tropical system lifts northward
across the western Atlantic.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Radar as of 3am is becoming a bit more active with several areas of
showers pushing across the region. Most of the activity has been
confined east of the Blue Ridge and down across the central VA
Piedmont into eastern VA. Expect the coverage of showers to pick up
before daybreak with an embedded thunderstorms as a wave of
precipitation lifts north and east from southern WV and
southwest VA. Pockets of fog and low stratus have been observed
across the Shenandoah Valley, central/northeast MD and the
Alleghenies where a few breaks in the clouds have been noted
between the areas of showers. Low clouds will likely remain as
the coverage of shower activity picks up for the morning rush.
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today as a
positively tilted longwave trough and surface cold front slowly
push through the region. On and off light showers and fog early
this morning will give way to scattered to numerous showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms for work/school morning commute.
This is in association with a piece of shortwave energy moving
across the front side  of the upper trough lifting northeast
from southwest VA/eastern KY. Deep moisture continues to be
drawn northward ahead of this feature with 00/06z PWATS at KIAD
hovering around 1.8-1.9 inches. Anomalously high values have
also been observed at KRNK with 00z soundings showing PWATS
around 1.5 inches. Expect these values to remain quite similar
throughout the day if not rise given the fact that rich deep
layer moisture will continue to increase ahead of incumbent
trough/surface cold frontal boundary. Morning temperatures will
sit in the mid to upper 60s and low 70s under overcast skies.
Dewpoints will feel more like Summer with values in the upper
60s and low to mid 70s.
The first wave of showers and thunderstorms look to exit mid to late
morning allowing the atmosphere to reload for the afternoon and
evening ahead. Some uncertainty remains into how much clearing that
we do see given the morning activity and incumbent trough/surface
cold front nearby. Even with that said, the added lifting mechanism
of the trough/front and leading shortwave energy should aid in
higher convective chances this afternoon. The Storm Prediction
Center has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe weather
today east of the Allegheny Mountains. The main threat is damaging
winds and heavy rainfall with a secondary threat of an isolated
tornado. CAPE values look to sit between 1000-2000 j/kg with deep
layer shear around 40 to 50 kts. This should lead to some
organization if storms are to materialize (i.e line segments or even
a supercell or two). The NAM3km/NSSL/ARW remain the aggressors when
it comes to curved hodographs with 0-1 SRH values up around 200-250
m2/s2. The RAP/HRRR show less values and less of a curved signature.
With that said, the tornado threat would remain isolated (i.e via
supercell or most likely in a QLCS type of scenario) with a focus
east of US-15. Greatest concern for severe weather if it were to
occur would be between 4-8pm as the front crosses. Once again the
threat will be highly dependent upon cloud cover and how quickly
things can reload after this morning`s rainfall. Afternoon high`s
will reach into the upper 70s and low 80s (upper 60s and low 70s
mountains).
The front will push east of the area late tonight with scattered
showers lingering into the overnight period. Winds will switch from
the southwest to northwest yielding decreasing dewpoints heading
into Friday morning. Lows will range from the upper 50s and low 60s
west of the Blue Ridge to upper 60s across the I-95 corridor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front looks to sit just east of the Chesapeake Bay
Friday morning. A few lingering showers may be possible for
areas east of I- 95 and down across southern MD and the northern
neck of VA. Clouds will gradually thin with filtered breaks of
sunshine, especially later in the day and in areas mainly north
of I-66/US-50. The front itself will continue toward the
Delmarva coast before stalling into the upcoming weekend. With
the frontal zone nearby expect continued scattered shower
chances in areas south of I-66 (central VA Piedmont) Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. High temperatures Friday will
push back into the upper 70s and low 80s (upper 60s and low 70s
mountains). Overnight lows Friday night will fall back into mid
to upper 50s west of I-81 with low to mid 60s further east.
Surface high pressure tries to build back into the region from the
Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal
boundary will remain in the vicinity of the lower Delmarva coast and
Carolinas with an upper level low pressure system cutoff within the
mean flow over the southern Appalachians. In addition to this
Tropical Storm Humberto will continue further north toward the
Bahamas and southeast U.S coast late Saturday into Sunday. The
interaction amongst all these surface/upper level features could
lead to a pseudo PRE event across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
region as early as Saturday night into Sunday morning. Lots of
uncertainty remains in regards to where this event will occur given
the interaction and overall placement of the aforementioned features
above. The dynamics are there though given the approaching
upper level trough and surface cold front, low pressure to the
south, and influx of tropical moisture along the stalled
boundary at the coast. Something that will have to continue to
monitor in the coming days ahead. Either way if this were to
occur we could be looking at drought busting rainfall for much
of the region to round the weekend into early next. Highs
Saturday will range from the mid to upper 70s over central and
northeast MD to mid 60s and low 70s over the mountains/Shenadoah
Valley. Lows Saturday night will fall back into the upper 50s
and low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UL troughing and an associated cut-off ULL over the southern
Appalachians will meander over the same general area through much of
the long term. For Sunday, rather interesting set up with some model
guidance and ensemble suites starting to hint at a pseudo PRE event
with heavy rain in the Mid-Atlantic. Lots of uncertainties wrt
placement and actual occurrence, but dynamics are there: approaching
trough and sfc cold front with UL right entrance of jet streak, some
MUCAPE with low-level stability, and near record PWs. Depending on
timing may start before sunrise Sunday, and go into Monday, but
something to keep an eye on.
Thereafter, attention turns to the tropics and how Tropical Storm
Humberto interacts with invest 94L and the trough across the eastern
CONUS. Lots of uncertainties and NHC has the latest official
forecast at hurricanes.gov.
Temperatures will be in the 70s each day with higher elevations
staying in the 60s. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s for
those east of the Blue Ridge and 50s for those along and west.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cigs and vsbys continue to bounce around this morning due
largely in part to pockets of low clouds, fog, and showers over
the region. Areas that are seeing low clouds and fog are seeing
MVFR to IFR conditions. Locations seeing showers are seeing a
mix of VFR to MVFR conditions. Shower activity will continue to
increase this morning as a disturbance approaches from southwest
VA and southern WV. Shower activity should remain light to
moderate leading to vsby reductions between 5-6SM. An embedded
thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out. For now, left PROB30s out
for this with an emphasis on the afternoon TAF window for
convective development.
Sub-VFR conditions will continue at times this afternoon and evening
as a cold front crosses the region. A brief lull in precipitation
may occur between 15-19z/11am-3pm across the terminals as the first
wave of precipitation exits northeast and cold front lags behind.
The cold front/upper level trough look to cross the area tonight
into Friday morning. Ahead of the front expect scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be strong with
wind as the primary concern. Went with PROB30s at all the terminals
between the 20-02z/4-9pm for the greatest potential of thunderstorm
development. Cloud cover could be a limiting factor once again
depending on how quickly rain exits this morning and if any breaks
in the mid and high level cloud deck were to occur this afternoon.
Any convection will wane after sunset with leftover showers in the
wake of the front late tonight into Friday morning. Cigs will be
slow to improve with sub-VFR conditions hanging on at terminals
south of KDCA through Friday night as the front stalls nearby.
Winds today will remain out of the south/southwest at 5 to 15 kts
with gusts up to 20 kts at times during the afternoon and evening
hours. Winds shift to west-northwesterly behind the front at 5 to 10
kts.Winds remain light out of the east and northeast Saturday,
blowing up to 10 knots. Winds become light and variable Saturday
night. VFR conditions are expected through Saturday afternoon with
precipitation chances (especially south of KMRB and KBWI leading to
periods of sub-VFR conditions.
Restrictions possible Saturday night into Monday depending on track
and timing of front and associated rain. Winds light with a
northerly component through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Brief periods of southerly channeling are expected today ahead
of the incoming cold frontal boundary. Overall winds will remain
below SCA levels with the closest thresholds being reached
later this afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient
tightens. SCAs or Marine Weather Statements may be needed over
portions of the bay and tidal Potomac later this afternoon and
into the evening hours.
Shower and thunderstorm chances look to continue today as a cold
front finally works across the waters. Showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms are expected this morning with additional coverage
this afternoon and evening. Cold frontal convection may impact the
waters Thursday evening which may warrant a Special Marine Warning
or two. The front does not look to cross until late tonight into
early Friday morning. Winds switch to the west and northwest in the
wake of the front, but will likely stay below SCA levels
Friday.
Overall wind fields should stay below advisory thresholds Saturday
given a relaxed gradient. Speeds will sit at less than 10 kts.
No marine hazards expected Sunday and Monday as winds remain
light with a northerly component.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies are forecast to remain slightly elevated through
today, so additional near minor flooding is possible at
sensitive locations such as Annapolis. This is most likely with
the higher daily tide cycle this afternoon and evening, with
the strongest onshore flow and highest anomalies possible ahead
of the front swinging through.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...EST
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...CPB/EST
MARINE...CPB/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion