Richland Center, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

517
FXUS63 KARX 191838
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
138 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend with
  localized heavy rain at times. Rainfall amounts through the
  weekend generally in the 0.3 to 0.6" range for areas south of
  I-94 and 0.6 to 1.25" for areas to the north of I-94.
- Temperatures stay near normal with highs in the low to mid
  70s through much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Periodic Showers and Storms Through the Weekend:
The upper level low is finally shifting east gradually. As this low
moves eastward, RAP 700mb vorticity shows impulses of shortwave
energy pass through the region with the better waves moving through
later this afternoon and evening and again on Saturday afternoon and
evening. These are the times when the highest chances for showers
and thunderstorms are likely to occur. Outside of when the more
defined waves move through, there will still enough lift and
instability for scattered showers and storms to occur. There are
some models that hint at another wave moving through Sunday evening
that could increase widespread rain chances, however exact
location and strength of this wave as well as any dry air
entraining in, is still uncertain as this will play a role in
how high the rain chances get.
Rainfall amounts through the weekend are generally in the 0.3 to
0.6" range for locations south of I-94 and 0.6 to 1.25" for areas to
the north of I-94. The HREF LPMM for 24 and 48 hours also highlights
the I-94 corridor for the potential to see up to 2 to 2.5 inches by
Sunday afternoon. While most of this rain will not fall all at once,
with PWATs generally in the 1 to 1.4" range, there will be times
when localized heavy rainfall will be possible when a heavier shower
or thunderstorm moves over.
Rain Potential Next Week:
By Monday, we are still in close enough proximity to the low that
another shortwave passes through increasing rain chances. At the
same time, another trough dips down into the central CONUS. This
trough eventually may close off and a closed low sits over the
Mid Mississippi River Valley into next weekend. There are still
some discrepancies in exact location and strength of the close
low, as well as how long it lingers near our forecast area.
Current ensemble guidance has a 60% chance that this low closes
off and sits over the Mid Mississippi River Valley Region into
next weekend. The other 40% of ensembles differ on location of
the trough and not having the trough stem away from the parent
longwave trough. Regardless if the trough does close off and
form a low, lingering rain chances may continue through much of
next week. Compared to previous forecasts, this trough has dug a
little further south lowering our rain chances for next week.
This is will be something to watch as we get closer to see how
our rain chances change. Something that is of higher confidence
is the temperature forecast. With the trough moving down next
week and the influence from the current low overhead, highs will
mostly stay in the low to mid 70s into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A messy afternoon and evening is in store for the region as
scattered showers will continue to develop (30-60%) with TS
possible with any showers. Visibility restrictions are expected
to be minimal within showers, largely remaining VFR, but could
fall to be MVFR/IFR in areas of heavier rainfall, primarily over
Wisconsin around and after 00z where heavier rain rates are
expected. MVFR ceilings should persist through at least this
evening.
There is some indication of fog development overnight given the
available moisture associated with the rainfall of the past few
days. Not confident enough to include in the TAFs at this point
given stronger winds aloft and cloudy conditions expected
overnight, but will be something to keep an eye on.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Falkinham

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion