Rock Creek, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

070
FXUS64 KFWD 210623
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
123 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered storms will move through the region this evening,
  with the potential for strong to severe wind gusts and hail.
- Above normal temperatures and low storm chances will continue
  Monday and Tuesday.
- A cold front will move through North Texas Tuesday night with
  increasing storm chances and cooler weather through Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Monday Afternoon/
Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to continue
in our northwestern counties as we head through the morning hours
in response to a minute disturbance passing across the Southern
Plains. Additional showers and storms are expected to develop this
afternoon along a dryline to our west and a lingering outflow
boundary to our northwest and move southeast as a stronger mid-
level shortwave disturbance transits across the Southern Plains.
With flow a bit more parallel to the boundary, initially discrete
storms will likely grow upscale into one or more clusters as they
advance. While the overall severe threat is on the lower end,
increasing instability and shear will promote the potential for
strong to severe wind gusts and hail within the more robust cells.
This is particularly true for the northwestern half of the
region, as the severe risk and intensity of storms decreases
further southeast. Have expanded and increased forecast PoPs as
the base NBM is not picking up on this potential. Otherwise,
afternoon highs will peak in the low-mid 90s.
The base of the shortwave will continue moving east overnight and
eject to the northeast during the day on Monday. The better lift
from the shortwave will remain to our north, keeping the best rain
chances north of the Red River. However, there will still be
isolated to scattered showers and storms mainly near the Red River
as we go through the day. Severe weather is not expected with
this activity. Afternoon highs will peak in the 90s again for
most. There is also a low potential for some spots out west to
reach the 100 degree mark.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Evening Onward/
The big story for the long term forecast will occur during
midweek. A shortwave moving onshore in the PACNW will amplify
into a stout upper low as it ejects south south-southeast Monday
night into Tuesday. As the low continues to swing across the
Plains, the system`s attendant cold front will advance south
through the region midweek. There is still discrepancies in
regards to timing with about 46% of total ensemble members having
slower frontal timing on Wednesday, compared to the NAM`s front
moving through during the day Tuesday. Nonetheless, this front
will bring increased rain chances near the boundary. The exact
severe weather threat continues to be uncertain in regards to
location and intensity. However, looking at forecast soundings
there may be the potential for some strong to severe wind gusts
and hail as the front moves through. More details on this will
become available as we get closer in time. The front will also be
accompanied by a push of cooler air, so expect afternoon highs in
the 80s and morning lows in the 50s and 60s as we head toward the
end of the week into the weekend.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/
Southerly winds will persist through the morning, gradually
increasing in speeds to around 14-15 kts with occasionally higher
gusts through the late morning and afternoon. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms are expected to develop to the
northwest of D10 in the afternoon. This activity is expected to
grow into clusters, and move southeast this evening. The best
timing for convection around the airports is mainly between 23-04Z
at D10 and 03-06Z at ACT. There is increasing potential for
terminal impacts at D10 between 00-03Z, but there is enough
uncertainty at this time to forego any TSRA mention with this TAF
package. However, there will likely need to be a TEMPO group added
in later issuances if guidance comes into more agreement.
Prater
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  94  75  94  72 /   5  10  30   5  10
Waco                73  94  74  95  74 /   0   5  30   0   5
Paris               71  91  73  92  71 /   0   5  20  30  20
Denton              73  94  74  95  69 /  10  20  30  10  20
McKinney            73  92  74  94  71 /   5  10  30  10  10
Dallas              74  95  75  96  74 /   5   5  30   5  10
Terrell             72  92  73  92  71 /   0   5  30   5  10
Corsicana           74  94  75  94  74 /   0   5  30   5   5
Temple              72  94  73  94  73 /   0   5  20   5   5
Mineral Wells       71  98  73  96  69 /  20  20  30   5  10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion