Rodeo, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

034
FXUS64 KEPZ 151722
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1122 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1122 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
- Slight increase in upper level moisture will lead to isolated
   showers and storms this afternoon.
- Better moisture returns Tuesday and Wednesday with low to
   medium storm chances.
- A bit less moisture Thursday into the weekend, but isolated
   thunderstorms still possible. Temperatures will remain near
   normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Mid-level high persists over northern Mexico this morning with
west flow over the CWA around the top of the high. Very modest
amounts of moisture remain under the high so isolated storms
possible this afternoon and evening. CAMS members seem to show the
best chances (still low) over the southern zones, so shaped the
grids to that pattern.
Some more moisture is added into the mix for Tuesday and
Wednesday, with thunderstorm coverage increasing a bit. PWs rise
to a bit above one inch in the south, and combined with slow storm
motion, local flooding are possible. By Thursday and Friday, what
remains of Mario will help build the Mexican ridge up across
Arizona and Utah. However persisent re-cycled moisture will
continue across the CWA, so will have to keep chances of rain into
the weekend. 12Z GFS now bringing Pacific low into the area next
Sunday night and Monday. This is a big departure from both its
previous run and the ECMWF. Interesting to watch next couple of
days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
SCT100 SCT250. Isolated BKN080CB -TSRA, mainly adjacent to the
International Border, til around 05Z. Surface winds mainly
east/southeast 7-10 knots through 02Z, then variable AOB 7 knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Tail end of the monsoon continues through the period. Modest
amounts of moisture will remain in place this week for isolated
thunderstorms each day. Risk of flooding will remain on the lower
side. Humidity will remain well above the critical level.
Min RHs: Lowlands 25-35% through Saturday. Gila/Black Range 35-50%
through Saturday. Sacramento Mtns 40-55% through Saturday. Vent
rates fair-good through Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  70  90  69  89 /  20  30  20  20
Sierra Blanca            59  84  60  84 /  20  20  10  20
Las Cruces               63  86  63  84 /  10  40  30  20
Alamogordo               62  87  63  86 /  20  30  20  30
Cloudcroft               45  64  45  63 /  20  40  20  60
Truth or Consequences    62  85  62  84 /  10  40  30  20
Silver City              58  80  58  79 /  10  60  40  40
Deming                   64  89  63  87 /  10  50  40  20
Lordsburg                64  86  63  84 /  10  50  30  30
West El Paso Metro       70  88  70  87 /  20  30  30  20
Dell City                62  87  63  87 /  20  10  10  20
Fort Hancock             67  89  68  89 /  20  20  10  20
Loma Linda               61  81  62  80 /  20  30  20  20
Fabens                   66  88  67  88 /  20  20  20  20
Santa Teresa             66  87  66  86 /  20  30  30  20
White Sands HQ           65  87  65  86 /  20  30  30  30
Jornada Range            62  86  63  84 /  10  40  30  30
Hatch                    62  89  63  87 /  10  40  40  30
Columbus                 64  88  65  87 /  10  40  30  20
Orogrande                62  86  62  84 /  20  30  20  30
Mayhill                  50  75  50  74 /  20  50  10  60
Mescalero                50  77  50  75 /  20  40  20  60
Timberon                 49  73  49  71 /  20  40  20  50
Winston                  52  78  51  77 /  20  50  30  40
Hillsboro                59  85  59  84 /  20  50  40  30
Spaceport                60  85  61  84 /  10  40  30  30
Lake Roberts             46  81  52  79 /  10  60  40  50
Hurley                   58  82  58  81 /  20  50  40  30
Cliff                    49  87  60  86 /  10  60  30  30
Mule Creek               46  83  58  82 /  10  50  30  20
Faywood                  59  82  60  80 /  10  50  40  30
Animas                   63  87  63  84 /  20  50  20  30
Hachita                  62  85  62  84 /  20  40  30  30
Antelope Wells           62  86  62  84 /  20  50  20  30
Cloverdale               61  81  60  79 /  20  60  20  30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion