Rolla, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

354
FXUS63 KDDC 191043
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
543 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe storms this evening
  through the late night hours, focused mainly on central
  Kansas, east of Highway 283.
- Severe weather risks include large hail quarter to ping pong
  size, mainly I-70 corridor and 60 to 70 mph thunderstorm wind
  gusts later on in the evening.
- Unsettled pattern returns early to mid next week with a fairly
  strong cold front increasingly likely Tuesday-Wednesday of
  next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Overnight water vapor loop and RAP objective analysis fields show
western Kansas in a northwest flow pattern aloft as a 500mb low
continues to wallow across the Dakotas. A shortwave trough
overnight was moving across Oklahoma, leading to nocturnal
convection well to our southeast. Another jet streak/shortwave
trough will advance southeast through the larger scale pattern
later today, approaching southern Nebraska/northern Kansas later
in the day. This disturbance will have fairly decent low level
baroclinicity to work with, enhancing lift along the frontal
zone across southern Nebraska, eventually fostering surface-
based convection.
The 19/00Z run of the HREF shows a fairly strong convective signal
this evening with initial thunderstorm development between I-70
and I-80 in the 22-24Z time frame early this evening. Latest
NBM POPs have 30 to 50% generally east of U283 tonight, highest
farther east where there is greater confidence of storms
impacting more of central Kansas vs. west central Kansas. There
is some uncertainty regarding how far west a potential mesoscale
convective system (MCS) will track, so expect some fine-tuning
of the POPs on the western edge as we get closer to tonight. As
far as severe weather risk goes, the large hail risk will be
greatest farther north in the incipient supercell phase of the
event, mainly near the Nebraska-Kansas line. Eventually, a cold
pool will develop and the severe weather risk will transition
toward a damaging straight line wind risk  again mainly east of
Highway 283.
The cold front, albeit fairly weak, will move through southwest
Kansas late tonight/early Saturday morning and will push the
greatest thunderstorm probabilities to the south on Saturday
into Sat Night. Low level return flow will redevelop late
Saturday Night into early Sunday, leading to elevated showers
and thunderstorms across portions of mainly south central Kansas
into Oklahoma. After that, an upper level ridge will make an
attempt to build across the Southern Rockies and perhaps into
Colorado and southwest Kansas late weekend into early next week,
however another northern branch jet streak will dive
southeastward across the Northern Rockies, effectively squashing
the ridge and providing a more favorable environment for showers
and thunderstorms across the Central Plains, including southwest
Kansas, but the models are all over the place regarding synoptic
details. So, the early-mid next week forecast is of fairly low
confidence from a precipitation standpoint with higher
confidence in cooler temperatures, especially Tuesday and more
likely Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Tranquil aviation weather will continue through this afternoon,
although toward evening, thunderstorms are forecast to advance
southeastward from southern Nebraska into northern Kansas. We
will introduce a ~4 hour window PROB30 group for thunderstorms
at HYS and DDC terminals. After thunderstorms move through, a
cold front will usher in cooler air and likely MVFR/IFR ceiling
in stratus cloud.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion