Roy, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

885
FXUS65 KTFX 251146
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
546 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Aviation Section Updated.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- It will be hot, dry, and windy today with dry weather
   continuing through Sunday.
- It will be cooler Friday through the weekend with a windy day
   on Friday.
- Precipitation chances return early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 143 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025/
- Meteorological Overview:
Today there is an upper-level ridge over North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana which will allow temperatures to warm up to
well above seasonal averages with dry weather. This evening due to
an upper-level trough combined with a surface cold front that begins
to dip down from Canada it will be windy across North-central
Montana. On Friday the weak upper-level trough remains in place over
North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This combined with
the cold front will bring temperatures back down closer to seasonal
averages with dry weather. On Friday it will be windy across North-
central and Central Montana due to a strong surface pressure
gradient and strong mid and upper-level winds. On Saturday an upper-
level ridge builds back in over North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. On Saturday it will be windy along the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent plains due to a strong surface pressure
gradient. On Sunday the upper-level ridge remains over North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring another
warm and dry day to the area on Sunday. Monday through Wednesday an
upper-level trough slowly moves over North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. This will bring daily chances for showers to
the area Monday through Wednesday with cooler temperatures. -IG
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
There is a 30 - 50% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater
along the plains adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front today. There
is a 60 - 90% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater along
the Rocky Mountain Front today through Saturday. There is a 50 -
70% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater along the plains
adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front on Friday. There is a 20 -
50% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater across the rest of
North-central and Central Montana on Friday. There is a 20 - 50%
chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater along the plains
adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front on Saturday.
Monday through Wednesday there remains some uncertainty with regards
to precipitation amounts and location. However there is a 40 - 80%
chance for a quarter inch of rain or greater in Southwestern Montana
with the highest chances in the mountains. Across North-central and
Central Montana there is a 20 - 50% chance for a quarter inch of
precipitation or greater with the highest chances along the Rocky
Mountain Front. -IG
&&
.AVIATION...
25/12Z TAF Period
Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours with the light
winds, though winds will begin to increase at KEKS, KCTB, and
KGTF after 20z tomorrow as a stronger cold front approaches.
Ludwig
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  51  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  83  46  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  84  50  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  82  44  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  72  32  69  29 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  80  42  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  83  48  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  50  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion