Russell Springs, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

340
FXUS63 KGLD 270633
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1233 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- South winds gusting 30-45 mph are forecast to return Sunday
  into Monday. There is a 20% chance of wind gusts to 58 mph
  both days over east-central Colorado.
- Chances for storms across much of the upcoming week are
  forecast to generally be below 15%.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1231 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Observations as of midnight show a cold front around Highway 36.
Winds behind the front are shifting to out of the north while winds
ahead remain light from the south. As the front pushes through,
winds will shift to out of the north across the area, with speeds
generally around 10-15 mph. With the inversion in place, it looks
like the stronger wind gusts shouldn`t mixed down, especially
combined with current observations showing now gusts. That being
said, it wouldn`t be unreasonable for a few gusts around 30-35 mph
as the front pushes through and with the radar sampling winds around
25 kts at 1500ft.
For the daytime hours, the front should be pushed through the area.
With this, winds will initially start from the north, but veer more
to out of the east as higher pressure sets up over the Plains. While
the front is forecast to advect in some colder air, upper ridging
pushing back in along with some sunshine should allow temperatures
to warm to near 80. Those who stay cloud covered, favoring southern
and western portions of the area, could see temperatures stay in the
70s.
Tonight, winds should shift to the south as low pressure deepens
over the northern portion of the High Plains, though with speeds
only around 5 to 10 mph as the pressure gradient weakens over the
area. With generally southern flow through most of the column, some
moisture pulled in from the upper low over the southwest should
increase cloud cover over the area. Currently, the forecast does not
favor much low level moisture moving in which would keep us fog free
with the relatively dry air we have in place. That being said, the
chance is about 10-15% for counties along and south of I-70.
Temperatures tonight should drop into the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Winds are forecast to start of light early Sunday morning, but
as the surface high shifts east into the Midwest low level flow
will increase from the south on Sunday. At the same time,
diffluent flow with the left exit region of the 300mb jet will
eventually catch the cut- off low across the Desert Southwest
and send it our way. Multiple shortwaves will ripple through the
Front Range, resulting in lee cyclones which will serve to
tighten the surface pressure gradient across the tri-state area
and favor seasonably breezy conditions.
West of any dryline that sets up each day Sunday-Tuesday (and
possibly beyond), the deeper mixing will favor warmer
temperatures, larger dew point depressions (hence lower RH
values), and stronger surface winds, which could result in some
marginal fire weather concerns after our several-day dry
stretch. In addition, if optimal mixing depth is achieved (~2km)
in those areas west of the dryline (most likely our eastern CO
counties) where boundary layer lapse rates are steep, then there
will at least be a low chance for some blowing dust.
While the probability is low (10-20%), we`ll also be watching
for any convection developing off the higher terrain to our
west. Low level moisture is so scarce on Sunday, it would be
somewhat surprising if our area gets any storms though it`s
noteworthy that a couple iterations of the ECMWF have hinted at
it. However, late Monday into Tuesday both the GFS and ECMWF
depict a more appreciable disturbance lifting across the tri-
state area, which in theory would bring a better opportunity for
at least isolated storms. Given the steep lapse rates advected
into our area ahead of that disturbance, one wouldn`t be
surprised if any storm becomes strong-severe with some hail (and
gusty winds given the deep, dry sub-cloud layer), but at this
point confidence in any - let alone severe - storms is low.
Cluster analysis suggests Low Resolution Ensemble Forecast
(LREF) system member dispersion in the 500mb height (synoptic)
pattern heading into mid to late next work week. This is
reflected well in the global deterministic models (CMC, ECMWF,
GFS) as well, as each differ from one another in how they
portray the evolution of one of more prospective weather systems
that may impact the Great Basin and Plains Regions.
Consequently, confidence is low in the observable weather from
Wednesday onward. For what it`s worth, the NBM advertises
generally sub mentionable (i.e., less than 15%) chances for
precipitation and slightly above normal temperatures (upper 70s
to mid 80s).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1039 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected at both sites.
Winds near the surface are forecast to shift from out of the
south, to out of the north around 06-08Z. Winds should then
shift to be more from the east after 16Z. Speeds through the
period should hold around 10-15 kts once the winds shift to out
of the north. An occasional gust to 20 kts is possible.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Bumgardner/KAK
AVIATION...KAK

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion