San Antonio, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

169
FXUS64 KEWX 051855
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
155 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures Friday.
- A cold front will bring a return of rain chances this weekend
  with the potential for locally heavy rain and possible
  flooding, mainly on Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
Temperature trends from Noon today are a little lower compared
to 24 hours ago, while dewpoints are running higher. The current
forecast is still on track for highs to peak in the lower 90s
to near 102 degrees across south central Texas. Looking
elsewhere across Texas, early afternoon temperatures are as low
as the mid 50s in the Texas Panhandle where a cold front is
moving southward.
For the remainder of today, most areas are expected to remain
dry, but we will keep a low chance for an isolated shower or
storm in the forecast across northwestern Val Verde county. For
tonight, we expect to see an increase in mid and upper level
moisture associated with remnants of Lorena in the eastern
Pacific. Rain chances remain low and confined to the Rio Grande
plains through tonight. The clouds along with southerly flow in
the lower levels will keep overnight lows well into the 70s.
Moisture levels continue to trend upward on Saturday and with
some increase in mid-level vorticity fields moving in from the
west, rain chances will eventually spread across all of south
central Texas. Chances for convection appear favored in the
afternoon hours when the above mentioned cold front will be
moving southward. Moisture and the frontal placement tend to
favor the western Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau for
rain chances Saturday afternoon and evening. For Saturday night,
the eastern edge of the front will likely hang up somewhere near
the middle Texas coast, while the western edge becomes diffuse
over the Rio Grande plains. Moisture transport in the lower
levels looks to focus across the Rio Grande plains, southern
Edwards Plateau beginning Saturday night. This pattern will
lead to an increase in rain chances for the mentioned areas late
Saturday night into Sunday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
As mentioned above, rain chances Sunday morning will initially
remain favored across the Rio Grande plains and southern
Edwards Plateau. Hi-res models suggest rain chances will slowly
spread eastward into the Hill Country and possibly I-35 corridor
near San Antonio as the day progresses. The overall trend of the
latest round of the global models continues to show lower
rainfall amounts from the GFS, with higher amounts noted in the
ECMWF. The model trends do continue to favor the higher amounts
over the Rio Grande Plains, southern Edwards Plateau and
western Hill Country. While areas farther east could still see
some locally heavy rains, current trends suggest the above
mentioned areas will be favored. The Weather Prediction Center
(WPC) continues to maintain a level 1 of 4 risk for excessive
rainfall across all of south central Texas for Sunday. The
models will likely change over the next couple of days, so stay
informed and continue to monitor the latest forecast. The
increase in rain chances and cloud cover should keep highs down
in the lower 80s to lower 90s on Sunday.
Lingering moisture and northwest flow aloft argue for at least
isolated to scattered showers and storms into Monday as highs
nudge upward into the mid 80s to lower 90s. The pattern looks to
produce dry weather along with near to slightly above normal
temperatures for Tuesday through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
All terminals are currently VFR and will remain that way through the
afternoon and evening. Winds will be southerly to southeasterly this
afternoon and evening. Wind speeds will be around 10 kts with some
higher gusts during the afternoon. MVFR ceilings will develop
overnight and last until late morning. There is a slight chance for
convection overnight at DRT which will spread eastward Saturday
morning. Rain chances will be higher starting late Saturday morning
at DRT, and we have included a PROB30 group to account for it.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  91  72  87 /  10  20  30  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  91  72  87 /   0  20  20  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  93  72  89 /   0  20  30  60
Burnet Muni Airport            72  83  68  83 /  10  30  30  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  93  75  89 /  20  50  50  80
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  87  70  85 /  10  20  20  60
Hondo Muni Airport             75  93  73  89 /  10  30  40  70
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  93  71  89 /   0  30  30  60
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  92  73  88 /   0  30  20  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  93  74  89 /   0  30  40  70
Stinson Muni Airport           77  96  75  91 /   0  30  40  70
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Platt
LONG TERM...Platt
AVIATION...05

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion