Sapello, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

023
FXUS65 KABQ 251959
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
159 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1250 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- A storm system diving into southern California will begin to
  increase shower and thunderstorm coverage across western and
  central parts of the forecast area tonight and Friday.
- The storm system will spread cloud cover, precipitation, and
  cooler temperatures to most of the remainder of the forecast
  area Saturday and Sunday, with some lingering showers and storms
  mainly over central areas Monday. Much of the area from the east
  slopes of the central mountain chain westward will probably
  receive storm total rain amounts around 0.25 to 0.75 of an inch
  with locally higher amounts around 1 inch, except potentially
  near 2 inches in a few locations south of I-40. The greatest
  concern for flash flooding will be below the Ruidoso area burn
  scars.
- Drier weather will return for the mid week period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1250 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
An upper level low pressure system will drop southeastward over
the CA/AZ border tonight, then remain stalled there through Friday
night. While there, the system will draw rich subtropical
northward over western and central parts of the forecast area
with PWATs peaking around 125-200% of normal. After scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms in the Glenwood area this
evening, widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
spread as far north as the Chuska Mountains along NM`s western
border overnight tonight. On Friday, numerous showers and
thunderstorms are forecast over southwest and west central parts
of the forecast area, with isolated to scattered activity as far
east as the central mountain chain and the east slopes of the
south central mountains. Most rain amounts are forecast to remain
under a quarter inch, but locally heavier amounts near 1 inch will
be possible in the southwest mountains, which could lead to
drainage problems; especially below recent burn scars. Increasing
cloud cover and precipitation will drop high temperatures as much
as 6 degrees below 30-year averages over western areas on Friday,
while highs over central and eastern areas vary from near to as
much as 6 degrees above average.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The upper low will open into a trough as it exits northeastward
across the Four Corners and Colorado Sunday through Monday. The
system will spark scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
across much of the forecast area both Saturday and Sunday, with
scattered to isolated activity lingering over central areas on
Monday. Extensive cloud cover and high temperatures varying from
near to around 11 degrees below average will probably inhibit much
in the way of severe weather, and potentially also limit
occurrences of locally heavy rainfall from any single cell. There
will still be a risk of a spot or two receiving excessive
rainfall from training storms Saturday through Sunday evening,
especially the highly sensitive Ruidoso area burn scars. By Monday
evening, storm total rain amounts are forecast to vary around a
0.25-0.75" from the east slopes of the central mountain chain
westward with locally higher amounts potentially approaching 2
inches in the south central mountains and a few other fortunate
locations south of I-40.
In the wake of the upper trough, an active storm track over the
Pacific NW US will steer very dry air over NM from the southwest
with high temperatures climbing near to several degrees above
average across the forecast area by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected in
the Glenwood area this afternoon and evening. Storm motion will
mostly be toward the east around 10 KT. Tonight, widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along and west of
the continental divide as far north as the Chuska Mountains.
Elsewhere, high clouds will be on the increase as a storm system
moves over the Desert Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are
forecast as far east as the central mountain chain and the east
slopes of the Sacramento Mountains on Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1250 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Wetting precip will probably be pretty spotty over the far eastern
plains with the passing storm system this weekend. South and southwest
winds will then become seasonably gusty each afternoon in the
coming work week. Despite the drier air moving in, minimum
humidities are forecast to remain above 15 percent areawide
through mid week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  80  52  79  54 /   0   5  20   5
Dulce...........................  78  37  77  41 /   0   0  10   5
Cuba............................  75  46  75  48 /   0   0  40  20
Gallup..........................  80  47  74  47 /   5  20  70  40
El Morro........................  77  48  72  47 /   5  20  70  40
Grants..........................  80  47  75  47 /   0  10  70  40
Quemado.........................  79  49  74  46 /  20  30  70  50
Magdalena.......................  77  53  74  53 /  10  10  70  40
Datil...........................  77  49  72  47 /  20  20  80  50
Reserve.........................  83  48  79  48 /  50  60  70  60
Glenwood........................  87  53  82  52 /  50  70  70  60
Chama...........................  72  40  72  42 /   0   0  20   5
Los Alamos......................  73  51  73  52 /   0   0  20  10
Pecos...........................  75  47  76  50 /   0   0  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  73  45  74  47 /   0   0   5   5
Red River.......................  65  37  65  40 /   0   0   5   0
Angel Fire......................  69  30  69  33 /   0   0  10   0
Taos............................  75  41  77  44 /   0   0  10   5
Mora............................  73  42  74  45 /   0   0  20   5
Espanola........................  80  47  80  49 /   0   0  20  10
Santa Fe........................  75  51  76  53 /   0   0  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  78  47  79  50 /   0   0  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  80  59  82  59 /   0   0  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  82  55  83  58 /   0   0  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  84  54  85  57 /   0   0  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  83  56  83  58 /   0   0  20  20
Belen...........................  83  53  84  55 /   0   0  30  30
Bernalillo......................  83  53  85  56 /   0   0  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  83  52  84  54 /   0   0  30  20
Corrales........................  84  55  85  57 /   0   0  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  83  53  84  55 /   0   0  30  20
Placitas........................  78  54  80  56 /   0   0  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  83  55  84  57 /   0   0  20  20
Socorro.........................  85  58  85  58 /   5   5  50  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  75  50  77  50 /   0   0  30  20
Tijeras.........................  77  52  77  53 /   0   0  30  20
Edgewood........................  78  45  79  49 /   0   0  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  79  42  79  48 /   0   0  20  20
Clines Corners..................  74  47  75  50 /   0   0  20  20
Mountainair.....................  77  49  77  50 /   0   0  40  30
Gran Quivira....................  77  48  77  50 /   0   0  40  30
Carrizozo.......................  78  55  79  55 /   0   0  40  40
Ruidoso.........................  72  52  72  51 /   5   0  50  40
Capulin.........................  73  45  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  76  42  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  78  42  81  47 /   0   0   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  75  44  77  48 /   0   0  10   5
Clayton.........................  78  50  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  76  46  79  50 /   0   0   5   0
Conchas.........................  83  50  87  55 /   0   0   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  81  50  83  54 /   0   0  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  80  50  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  82  54  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  83  53  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  81  53  85  58 /   0   0   5   5
Roswell.........................  83  56  88  61 /   0   0  10  10
Picacho.........................  81  53  82  56 /   0   0  30  20
Elk.............................  79  51  80  53 /  10   0  40  30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion